{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89bb004d-8444-4ae1-9387-d9607c680b6c", "symbol": "FOSL", "name": "Fossil Group, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.397, "architecture_energy": 75.805, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.462, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.83, "rotation_up": 71.53, "upward_expansion": 83.86, "deceleration": 50.67, "rotation_down": 16.41, "downward_expansion": 22.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.2048, 3.972036, 3.866157, 3.836697 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.968, "trend_reference": 3.734633, "distance_from_trend": 0.330251, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.924906, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.580905, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.029888, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.737063, "excess_performance": 0.562816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.330251, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111459, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.580905, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.470045, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.280299, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017371, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.737063, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.266828, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4326, "relative_activity": 5.037555, "balance": 1.266828, "dry_up": 2.766521, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068469, "annualized_volatility": 0.700247, "from_high_reference": -0.06087, "from_low_reference": 2.471698 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.734633, "fair_value_reference": 1.924906, "structural_low": 2.882, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.166309, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.166829, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.647742, "worst_return": -0.257804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.33864, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.300008, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.334194, "worst_return": -0.459002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.268983, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.206565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.999355, "worst_return": -0.643433, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.15171, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.28129, "worst_return": -0.677365, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.298213, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154213, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.306005, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.248316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.327569, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.206897, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.663871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205951, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.633252, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.564, "volume": 2407, "typical_volume": 869.4, "trend": 3.6155, "fair_value": 1.87924, "relative_strength": -1.713902, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.682721, "energy": 8.851766, "activity_lines": [ 3.6912, 3.663345, 3.761567, 3.724559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.562, "volume": 1330, "typical_volume": 935.9, "trend": 3.628533, "fair_value": 1.886823, "relative_strength": -0.762129, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.988418, "energy": 7.771035, "activity_lines": [ 3.636933, 3.647309, 3.737386, 3.721108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.536, "volume": 2057, "typical_volume": 705.0, "trend": 3.642067, "fair_value": 1.893304, "relative_strength": -3.561831, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.428189, "energy": 30.47549, "activity_lines": [ 3.5908, 3.630691, 3.712862, 3.715138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.234, "volume": 1790, "typical_volume": 642.45, "trend": 3.675767, "fair_value": 1.904791, "relative_strength": 14.058777, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.782163, "energy": 23.136665, "activity_lines": [ 3.7908, 3.74, 3.754848, 3.753327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.968, "volume": 4326, "typical_volume": 858.75, "trend": 3.734633, "fair_value": 1.924906, "relative_strength": 28.029888, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.397316, "energy": 75.80481, "activity_lines": [ 4.2048, 3.972036, 3.866157, 3.836697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }