{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89bc7308-3a2e-4828-b6aa-f2af06f72c70", "symbol": "BNP", "name": "BNP Paribas SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.234, "architecture_energy": 96.216, "architecture_maturity": 47.923, "architecture_confidence": 79.194, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 84.74, "upward_expansion": 97.42, "deceleration": 41.92, "rotation_down": 10.27, "downward_expansion": 21.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.182667, 105.162, 99.63522, 95.942578 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 112.699997, "trend_reference": 92.072442, "distance_from_trend": 0.224036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.745768, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.714179, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.13349, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.251066, "excess_performance": 0.076819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.224036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114784, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.714179, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.260444, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.101335, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122257, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.251066, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.75763, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13, "relative_activity": 0.022416, "balance": 3.75763, "dry_up": 0.672472, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030727, "annualized_volatility": 0.285768, "from_high_reference": -0.00512, "from_low_reference": 0.778688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.072442, "fair_value_reference": 65.745768, "structural_low": 76.882527, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.016979, "positive_rate": 0.645161, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": 0.013013, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.153147, "worst_return": -0.222581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.063966, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.015872, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.266872, "worst_return": -0.226307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.11221, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.021991, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.249026, "worst_return": -0.105401, "sufficient": true }, { 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87.648389, "fair_value": 63.897416, "relative_strength": 1.820679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.145376, "energy": 92.3397, "activity_lines": [ 100.691332, 97.111552, 92.560121, 90.552308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 100.360001, "volume": 1112, "typical_volume": 841.0, "trend": 88.454608, "fair_value": 64.239594, "relative_strength": 0.8095, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.953604, "energy": 87.514376, "activity_lines": [ 101.094666, 98.236157, 93.562633, 91.372412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 102.040001, "volume": 818, "typical_volume": 848.55, "trend": 89.234262, "fair_value": 64.592964, "relative_strength": 4.454486, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.418588, "energy": 86.396865, "activity_lines": [ 101.612, 99.414727, 94.685366, 92.248888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.440002, "volume": 712, "typical_volume": 633.7, "trend": 90.136639, "fair_value": 64.951499, "relative_strength": 6.393352, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.53427, "energy": 84.812285, "activity_lines": [ 102.893334, 100.978364, 96.086026, 93.29442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.620003, "volume": 17, "typical_volume": 593.25, "trend": 91.136905, "fair_value": 65.342336, "relative_strength": 10.47081, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.153233, "energy": 87.949451, "activity_lines": [ 105.293335, 102.969273, 97.776777, 94.551411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.699997, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 579.95, "trend": 92.072442, "fair_value": 65.745768, "relative_strength": 10.13349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.233839, "energy": 96.215605, "activity_lines": [ 108.182667, 105.162, 99.63522, 95.942578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }