{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89c001db-1a0e-4233-b7bd-3fe087700adb", "symbol": "MEDICAB", "name": "M\u00e9dica Sur, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.122, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.978, "architecture_energy": 65.786, "architecture_maturity": 20.651, "architecture_confidence": 53.85, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.56, "rotation_up": 9.22, "upward_expansion": 21.6, "deceleration": 41.34, "rotation_down": 68.9, "downward_expansion": 75.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.399999, 59.018727, 59.018331, 59.252917 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 57.419998, "trend_reference": 59.38799, "distance_from_trend": -0.033138, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.882135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339019, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.671294, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021639, "excess_performance": 0.033028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033138, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339019, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006713, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018859, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.753064, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6139, "relative_activity": 0.919156, "balance": 3.753064, "dry_up": 0.399988, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015964, "annualized_volatility": 0.15125, "from_high_reference": -0.073871, "from_low_reference": 0.367143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.38799, "fair_value_reference": 42.882135, "structural_low": 56.493489, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007876, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.008046, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.19742, "worst_return": -0.04038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00861, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.052357, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.291818, "worst_return": -0.046783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.206085, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.138253, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.515151, "worst_return": -0.265196, "sufficient": false }, { 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0, "typical_volume": 6839.55, "trend": 59.216656, "fair_value": 42.241371, "relative_strength": 7.470033, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.598013, "energy": 37.999894, "activity_lines": [ 60.062, 59.463666, 59.411419, 59.446376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 59.400002, "volume": 470, "typical_volume": 6508.5, "trend": 59.296657, "fair_value": 42.380903, "relative_strength": 5.702231, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.474392, "energy": 29.315438, "activity_lines": [ 59.959334, 59.527197, 59.37342, 59.458205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.5, "volume": 4076, "typical_volume": 6600.7, "trend": 59.42399, "fair_value": 42.512142, "relative_strength": 5.436923, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.953807, "energy": 27.358026, "activity_lines": [ 59.863334, 59.609379, 59.352565, 59.471324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.5, "volume": 471, "typical_volume": 6568.1, "trend": 59.457323, "fair_value": 42.64201, "relative_strength": 5.61049, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.000161, "energy": 20.051906, "activity_lines": [ 59.734, 59.64593, 59.343614, 59.476228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6547.4, "trend": 59.42399, "fair_value": 42.764229, "relative_strength": 1.881247, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.062438, "energy": 32.337795, "activity_lines": [ 59.071334, 59.376522, 59.20133, 59.382207 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.419998, "volume": 6139, "typical_volume": 6678.95, "trend": 59.38799, "fair_value": 42.882135, "relative_strength": 0.671294, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.977651, "energy": 65.785921, "activity_lines": [ 58.399999, 59.018727, 59.018331, 59.252917 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }