{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89c00dcc-7a6a-4a92-99ea-2f6f60f32515", "symbol": "ITD", "name": "Intred S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.597, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.995, "architecture_energy": 12.714, "architecture_maturity": 20.871, "architecture_confidence": 53.541, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.75, "rotation_up": 21.85, "upward_expansion": 17.77, "deceleration": 65.81, "rotation_down": 49.93, "downward_expansion": 38.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.213333, 9.297091, 9.284611, 9.245779 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.22, "trend_reference": 9.262606, "distance_from_trend": -0.0046, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.0201, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07985, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.418904, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02955, "excess_performance": -0.200441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011562, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07985, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02955, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.98103, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38541, "relative_activity": 1.060084, "balance": 0.98103, "dry_up": 1.041043, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044719, "annualized_volatility": 0.177178, "from_high_reference": -0.152739, "from_low_reference": 0.115085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.262606, "fair_value_reference": 10.0201, "structural_low": 8.26843, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.00495, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.023069, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.137778, "worst_return": -0.197222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011029, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.07345, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.224696, "worst_return": -0.191026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.096912, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.150082, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.049197, "worst_return": -0.174289, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019355, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042056, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06067, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-08", 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"close": 9.16, "volume": 29131, "typical_volume": 38056.85, "trend": 9.344611, "fair_value": 10.043424, "relative_strength": -14.899991, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.850243, "energy": 17.153168, "activity_lines": [ 9.369333, 9.332727, 9.289061, 9.263807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.14, "volume": 33897, "typical_volume": 37400.8, "trend": 9.294822, "fair_value": 10.030258, "relative_strength": -15.217385, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.426074, "energy": 5.461473, "activity_lines": [ 9.269333, 9.309091, 9.283966, 9.250607 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.22, "volume": 38541, "typical_volume": 36356.55, "trend": 9.262606, "fair_value": 10.0201, "relative_strength": -16.418904, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.994504, "energy": 12.714316, "activity_lines": [ 9.213333, 9.297091, 9.284611, 9.245779 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }