{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89c368d6-8483-4724-a5ff-2092f3d613e2", "symbol": "UC64", "name": "UBS MSCI United Kingdom UCITS ETF GBP acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.336, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.605, "architecture_energy": 85.338, "architecture_maturity": 36.417, "architecture_confidence": 73.985, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.43, "rotation_up": 81.01, "upward_expansion": 94.77, "deceleration": 41.97, "rotation_down": 9.3, "downward_expansion": 19.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 4434.383333, 4385.009091, 4329.010714, 4296.237097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4489.25, "trend_reference": 4254.333333, "distance_from_trend": 0.055218, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3455.910256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299007, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.694572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076301, "excess_performance": 0.025065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055218, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032845, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299007, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04681, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016946, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002081, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076301, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.403378, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60950, "relative_activity": 1.50276, "balance": 2.403378, "dry_up": 1.403984, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017739, "annualized_volatility": 0.144504, "from_high_reference": -0.00438, "from_low_reference": 0.235428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4254.333333, "fair_value_reference": 3455.910256, "structural_low": 3933.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.011333, "positive_rate": 0.630435, "directional_follow_through": 0.630435, "median_excess_return": 0.003522, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.076272, "worst_return": -0.081952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.022823, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.010921, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.123796, "worst_return": -0.046069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.074909, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.01939, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.131568, "worst_return": -0.052677, "sufficient": true }, { 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4225.833333, "fair_value": 3434.350962, "relative_strength": 1.37853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.640859, "energy": 70.163678, "activity_lines": [ 4356.266667, 4325.5, 4287.329762, 4264.617742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4467.5, "volume": 121857, "typical_volume": 38508.35, "trend": 4240.816667, "fair_value": 3445.072115, "relative_strength": 1.573997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.559491, "energy": 75.532287, "activity_lines": [ 4397.1, 4354.895455, 4307.852381, 4280.20914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4489.25, "volume": 60950, "typical_volume": 40558.7, "trend": 4254.333333, "fair_value": 3455.910256, "relative_strength": 1.694572, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.605474, "energy": 85.33751, "activity_lines": [ 4434.383333, 4385.009091, 4329.010714, 4296.237097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }