{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89d5dadf-fb22-477d-ac22-c06e7246208d", "symbol": "000700", "name": "Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.069, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.058, "architecture_energy": 47.402, "architecture_maturity": 16.277, "architecture_confidence": 60.275, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.08, "rotation_up": 8.89, "upward_expansion": 14.94, "deceleration": 48.74, "rotation_down": 68.41, "downward_expansion": 71.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.402667, 12.891818, 13.502905, 13.430602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.78, "trend_reference": 13.516333, "distance_from_trend": -0.128462, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.305336, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.418365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.500923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120896, "excess_performance": -0.128295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089961, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.418365, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.506409, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045009, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120896, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.679034, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279086904, "relative_activity": 1.128168, "balance": 0.679034, "dry_up": 1.002466, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222868, "annualized_volatility": 0.85471, "from_high_reference": -0.368703, "from_low_reference": 0.578221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.516333, "fair_value_reference": 8.305336, "structural_low": 9.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014039, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023626, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.291557, "worst_return": -0.171429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067446, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010032, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.348493, "worst_return": -0.223054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.243813, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.144477, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.584029, "worst_return": -0.258571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.129436, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.210575, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.139371, "worst_return": -0.010854, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077532, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152203, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142229, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168553, "active": false }, { 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"2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.326624, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117137, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14598, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118708, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 5.980546, "volume": 193664450, "typical_volume": 58418163.05, "trend": 4.840702, "fair_value": 4.851243, "relative_strength": 28.15586, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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14.254714, 13.969404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.53, "volume": 227450458, "typical_volume": 238116988.7, "trend": 13.627591, "fair_value": 8.231118, "relative_strength": -10.867945, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.637248, "energy": 15.011507, "activity_lines": [ 13.15, 14.139636, 13.964667, 13.769968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.18, "volume": 247614979, "typical_volume": 241176003.5, "trend": 13.592578, "fair_value": 8.262691, "relative_strength": -12.756066, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.314748, "energy": 36.590133, "activity_lines": [ 11.878, 13.322364, 13.652286, 13.547543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.78, "volume": 279086904, "typical_volume": 247380660.05, "trend": 13.516333, "fair_value": 8.305336, "relative_strength": -4.500923, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.058303, "energy": 47.401742, "activity_lines": [ 11.402667, 12.891818, 13.502905, 13.430602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }