{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89d8ef4a-dcc7-42a0-8f4d-2ca0485aedf1", "symbol": "OCEAN", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy - ECPI Global ESG Blue Economy", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.461, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.27, "architecture_energy": 61.45, "architecture_maturity": 48.381, "architecture_confidence": 69.553, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 67.77, "upward_expansion": 84.92, "deceleration": 62.99, "rotation_down": 19.33, "downward_expansion": 9.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.623866, 18.545309, 18.305533, 18.142297 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.757999, "trend_reference": 17.933733, "distance_from_trend": 0.045962, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.06782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167426, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.448004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061814, "excess_performance": -0.109078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045962, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039404, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061814, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.775823, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5802, "relative_activity": 0.46796, "balance": 1.775823, "dry_up": 1.53198, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015132, "annualized_volatility": 0.102302, "from_high_reference": -0.004881, "from_low_reference": 0.191892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.933733, "fair_value_reference": 16.06782, "structural_low": 16.754, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.006741, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.007541, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.053953, "worst_return": -0.10958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.033107, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.043952, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.108672, "worst_return": -0.149267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030396, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.102963, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.14498, "worst_return": -0.114052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 12796.25, "trend": 17.744266, "fair_value": 15.981679, "relative_strength": -4.361201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.386722, "energy": 87.991201, "activity_lines": [ 18.538133, 18.3476, 18.1196, 17.98363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.684, "volume": 35973, "typical_volume": 12478.45, "trend": 17.816667, "fair_value": 16.009461, "relative_strength": -3.696394, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.229807, "energy": 86.972286, "activity_lines": [ 18.611467, 18.438982, 18.190447, 18.044258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.454, "volume": 13336, "typical_volume": 12513.5, "trend": 17.875733, "fair_value": 16.037359, "relative_strength": -5.384361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.026885, "energy": 57.598812, "activity_lines": [ 18.5696, 18.469527, 18.235676, 18.085376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.757999, "volume": 5802, "typical_volume": 12398.5, "trend": 17.933733, "fair_value": 16.06782, "relative_strength": -6.448004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.270396, "energy": 61.45016, "activity_lines": [ 18.623866, 18.545309, 18.305533, 18.142297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }