{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89db1ba9-768e-419f-ae71-ee9e69533c2b", "symbol": "RBI", "name": "Raiffeisen Bank International AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.907, "architecture_energy": 73.203, "architecture_maturity": 65.053, "architecture_confidence": 81.876, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 71.77, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 66.12, "rotation_down": 17.94, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.793333, 56.855273, 53.154898, 49.796697 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 62.700001, "trend_reference": 45.81401, "distance_from_trend": 0.368577, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.952549, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.512769, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 31.9018, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.547182, "excess_performance": 0.372935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.368577, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180693, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.512769, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.380754, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.319018, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112351, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.547182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.647025, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1383993, "relative_activity": 0.951909, "balance": 3.647025, "dry_up": 1.049316, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055404, "annualized_volatility": 0.387755, "from_high_reference": -0.038343, "from_low_reference": 1.321878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.81401, "fair_value_reference": 24.952549, "structural_low": 33.09919, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.056659, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.01778, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.207633, "worst_return": -0.164756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.145647, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.079671, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.333033, "worst_return": -0.181283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.225953, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.139368, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.475688, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.141409, "energy": 87.631608, "activity_lines": [ 54.76, 52.629273, 48.826852, 46.16777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.049999, "volume": 1480560, "typical_volume": 1585613.95, "trend": 43.489381, "fair_value": 24.025993, "relative_strength": 20.108347, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.093582, "energy": 80.536654, "activity_lines": [ 54.413333, 53.049818, 49.564399, 46.821392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.400002, "volume": 1916839, "typical_volume": 1539042.45, "trend": 44.158702, "fair_value": 24.310825, "relative_strength": 24.668271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.834807, "energy": 67.799029, "activity_lines": [ 55.003334, 53.947273, 50.562454, 47.654335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.599998, "volume": 1321063, "typical_volume": 1493664.55, "trend": 44.934689, "fair_value": 24.621568, "relative_strength": 30.318584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.546302, "energy": 70.609088, "activity_lines": [ 56.53, 55.24, 51.767908, 48.650548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.700001, "volume": 1383993, "typical_volume": 1453912.6, "trend": 45.81401, "fair_value": 24.952549, "relative_strength": 31.9018, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.907296, "energy": 73.202966, "activity_lines": [ 58.793333, 56.855273, 53.154898, 49.796697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }