{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89de2c39-e853-4479-8a7f-7652b988a5ce", "symbol": "FSEC", "name": "FIDELITY MERRIMACK STREET TRUST FIDELITY INVT GRADE SECURITIZED ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.017, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.513, "architecture_energy": 45.725, "architecture_maturity": 2.353, "architecture_confidence": 88.933, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.94, "rotation_up": 13.03, "upward_expansion": 9.49, "deceleration": 39.46, "rotation_down": 57.66, "downward_expansion": 82.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.405301, 43.504622, 43.574165, 43.624026 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43.49, "trend_reference": 43.683018, "distance_from_trend": -0.004419, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.849129, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.807175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006285, "excess_performance": -0.13191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004419, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001718, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020604, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108072, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015942, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006285, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.733022, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1225423, "relative_activity": 0.876458, "balance": 1.733022, "dry_up": 1.010051, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010472, "annualized_volatility": 0.044013, "from_high_reference": -0.020577, "from_low_reference": 0.043122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.683018, "fair_value_reference": 40.849129, "structural_low": 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"direction": -5.175, "energy": 4.543174, "activity_lines": [ 43.676115, 43.652584, 43.669035, 43.698953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.559486, "volume": 1021427, "typical_volume": 1287369.35, "trend": 43.702388, "fair_value": 40.738477, "relative_strength": -7.853069, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.539845, "energy": 17.535798, "activity_lines": [ 43.628038, 43.639672, 43.65529, 43.690154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.300322, "volume": 1744789, "typical_volume": 1325943.5, "trend": 43.693767, "fair_value": 40.773412, "relative_strength": -7.653819, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.183746, "energy": 38.292651, "activity_lines": [ 43.502552, 43.584297, 43.620646, 43.664214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.27, "volume": 1657189, "typical_volume": 1374138.45, "trend": 43.689156, "fair_value": 40.809804, "relative_strength": -8.428883, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.635783, "energy": 49.579175, "activity_lines": [ 43.397867, 43.522299, 43.586105, 43.636875 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.49, "volume": 1225423, "typical_volume": 1398153.85, "trend": 43.683018, "fair_value": 40.849129, "relative_strength": -10.807175, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.512556, "energy": 45.724797, "activity_lines": [ 43.405301, 43.504622, 43.574165, 43.624026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }