{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89dfdc30-48f8-43f7-b8e9-fc9f34852cee", "symbol": "CMOD", "name": "Invesco Bloomberg Commodity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.939, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.774, "architecture_energy": 37.118, "architecture_maturity": 32.038, "architecture_confidence": 50.565, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.89, "rotation_up": 65.11, "upward_expansion": 68.03, "deceleration": 63.05, "rotation_down": 9.54, "downward_expansion": 11.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.444666, 27.992364, 28.122619, 27.947946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.264999, "trend_reference": 27.335, "distance_from_trend": 0.034022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.595243, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250927, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.296438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156742, "excess_performance": -0.014149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034022, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065083, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250927, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062153, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156742, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.330196, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100823, "relative_activity": 0.796773, "balance": 1.330196, "dry_up": 0.97215, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031651, "annualized_volatility": 0.213538, "from_high_reference": -0.065465, "from_low_reference": 0.385879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.335, "fair_value_reference": 22.595243, "structural_low": 23.754999, "invalidation": "A 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"activity_lines": [ 27.012334, 27.708909, 28.009191, 27.455882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.315001, "volume": 168247, "typical_volume": 136439.65, "trend": 26.574667, "fair_value": 22.400724, "relative_strength": -4.210694, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.231902, "energy": 24.918982, "activity_lines": [ 27.017334, 27.543637, 27.960953, 27.514043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.290001, "volume": 132611, "typical_volume": 140224.15, "trend": 26.7685, "fair_value": 22.449153, "relative_strength": 0.567379, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.873646, "energy": 18.985589, "activity_lines": [ 27.419001, 27.591455, 27.993405, 27.62471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.25, "volume": 168904, "typical_volume": 141226.0, "trend": 26.984167, "fair_value": 22.500852, "relative_strength": 3.963542, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.106103, "energy": 28.410034, "activity_lines": [ 28.090667, 27.823728, 28.102024, 27.784807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.424999, "volume": 89722, "typical_volume": 130611.55, "trend": 27.177167, "fair_value": 22.548929, "relative_strength": 0.230012, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.904959, "energy": 33.335267, "activity_lines": [ 28.355, 27.913455, 28.119333, 27.877764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.264999, "volume": 100823, "typical_volume": 126539.1, "trend": 27.335, "fair_value": 22.595243, "relative_strength": -3.296438, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.773502, "energy": 37.118046, "activity_lines": [ 28.444666, 27.992364, 28.122619, 27.947946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }