{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89e3b299-472d-48f5-a6a8-d864b946e271", "symbol": "JLL", "name": "Jindalee Lithium Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.927, "architecture_energy": 81.395, "architecture_maturity": 46.544, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 22.57, "upward_expansion": 20.03, "deceleration": 37.74, "rotation_down": 66.67, "downward_expansion": 98.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.326667, 0.343091, 0.383515, 0.419293 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.32, "trend_reference": 0.475777, "distance_from_trend": -0.327416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.57079, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.439374, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.742373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.401869, "excess_performance": -0.465575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.327416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118295, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.439374, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320236, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.401869, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414384, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 316397, "relative_activity": 0.348816, "balance": 0.414384, "dry_up": 0.589898, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139556, "annualized_volatility": 0.90826, "from_high_reference": -0.683168, "from_low_reference": 0.032258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.475777, "fair_value_reference": 0.57079, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.038961, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.685714, "median_excess_return": -0.038725, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.345238, "worst_return": -0.350877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.107143, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.116073, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.643357, "worst_return": -0.485294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.172414, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.224909, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.227273, "worst_return": -0.742782, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.673077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.216216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134021, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.320755, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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69.556255, "activity_lines": [ 0.365667, 0.37806, 0.42734, 0.462966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.35, "volume": 404455, "typical_volume": 919995.05, "trend": 0.501943, "fair_value": 0.599572, "relative_strength": -31.881559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.747723, "energy": 70.971232, "activity_lines": [ 0.359, 0.370364, 0.416824, 0.452787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.33, "volume": 895984, "typical_volume": 937104.8, "trend": 0.49511, "fair_value": 0.590181, "relative_strength": -35.290666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.05975, "energy": 74.692153, "activity_lines": [ 0.348, 0.361364, 0.405523, 0.441694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.315, "volume": 523456, "typical_volume": 942960.8, "trend": 0.48711, "fair_value": 0.58047, "relative_strength": -39.218886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.843139, "energy": 81.390932, "activity_lines": [ 0.334667, 0.351091, 0.393816, 0.430074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.32, "volume": 316397, "typical_volume": 907060.35, "trend": 0.475777, "fair_value": 0.57079, "relative_strength": -39.742373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.927254, "energy": 81.39477, "activity_lines": [ 0.326667, 0.343091, 0.383515, 0.419293 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }