{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89e5ad55-82e1-41bb-96c8-c151ae42194f", "symbol": "EFO", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA MSCI EAFE", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.508, "architecture_energy": 63.26, "architecture_maturity": 23.759, "architecture_confidence": 88.193, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.31, "rotation_up": 63.81, "upward_expansion": 85.24, "deceleration": 47.88, "rotation_down": 16.75, "downward_expansion": 11.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.197153, 74.090755, 72.687259, 71.443048 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 79.0186, "trend_reference": 70.427683, "distance_from_trend": 0.121982, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.392729, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.537544, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.65759, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096456, "excess_performance": -0.029169, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121982, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055054, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.537544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06393, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.066576, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028351, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096456, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.468458, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30629, "relative_activity": 0.834078, "balance": 1.468458, "dry_up": 0.585038, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045477, "annualized_volatility": 0.377884, "from_high_reference": -0.001345, "from_low_reference": 0.426646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.427683, "fair_value_reference": 51.392729, "structural_low": 57.971962, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.016859, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": 8.3e-05, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.083014, "worst_return": -0.1173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.036423, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.016728, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.217287, "worst_return": -0.241145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.080904, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.055098, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.18818, "worst_return": -0.083874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 71.8687, "volume": 9832, "typical_volume": 40881.75, "trend": 69.696209, "fair_value": 50.89593, "relative_strength": 2.105317, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.531225, "energy": 29.836371, "activity_lines": [ 72.441873, 72.40782, 71.322094, 70.524521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.95, "volume": 25969, "typical_volume": 38430.95, "trend": 70.035235, "fair_value": 51.130796, "relative_strength": 5.00201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.394233, "energy": 35.754981, "activity_lines": [ 73.25508, 72.911069, 71.839036, 70.863476 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.0186, "volume": 30629, "typical_volume": 36722.0, "trend": 70.427683, "fair_value": 51.392729, "relative_strength": 6.65759, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.508138, "energy": 63.259768, "activity_lines": [ 75.197153, 74.090755, 72.687259, 71.443048 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }