{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89e88df5-5760-4e53-8837-f5508086417f", "symbol": "UPWK", "name": "Upwork Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.575, "architecture_energy": 21.223, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.535, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.03, "rotation_up": 27.86, "upward_expansion": 19.87, "deceleration": 46.83, "rotation_down": 21.29, "downward_expansion": 53.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.228, 9.002364, 9.042048, 9.773022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.67, "trend_reference": 11.509667, "distance_from_trend": -0.159837, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.534551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.285532, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.519051, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.489171, "excess_performance": -0.676624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159837, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235864, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.285532, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067731, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415191, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112899, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.489171, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.118344, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17501029, "relative_activity": 0.963822, "balance": 1.118344, "dry_up": 0.924773, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089333, "annualized_volatility": 0.626366, "from_high_reference": -0.576618, "from_low_reference": 0.299731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.509667, "fair_value_reference": 13.534551, "structural_low": 7.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.017029, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.01737, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.622807, "worst_return": -0.275067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.061865, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.141797, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.411325, "worst_return": -0.44784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.065026, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06527, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.551858, "worst_return": -0.513743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.417344, "energy": 40.183944, "activity_lines": [ 8.851333, 8.719818, 9.163643, 10.354935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.83, "volume": 15361938, "typical_volume": 17984639.05, "trend": 12.211667, "fair_value": 13.600577, "relative_strength": -44.394376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.187076, "energy": 33.223932, "activity_lines": [ 8.9, 8.753273, 9.067095, 10.110914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.16, "volume": 17345643, "typical_volume": 18073544.1, "trend": 11.855667, "fair_value": 13.564423, "relative_strength": -42.249729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.314639, "energy": 28.483466, "activity_lines": [ 9.006667, 8.834727, 9.023024, 9.914032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.67, "volume": 17501029, "typical_volume": 18157954.25, "trend": 11.509667, "fair_value": 13.534551, "relative_strength": -41.519051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.57456, "energy": 21.223164, "activity_lines": [ 9.228, 9.002364, 9.042048, 9.773022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }