{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89ebf9dc-860a-413f-9cf6-327ae39cfcc7", "symbol": "ALCBI", "name": "Crypto Blockchain Industries", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.835, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.406, "architecture_energy": 14.152, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.384, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.2, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 19.37, "deceleration": 43.64, "rotation_down": 24.86, "downward_expansion": 53.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.094687, 0.092898, 0.093339, 0.099101 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.101, "trend_reference": 0.110513, "distance_from_trend": -0.086083, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.308922, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.673057, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -46.292877, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.322148, "excess_performance": -0.375459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086083, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.673057, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018948, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.462929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322148, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.354586, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1710542, "relative_activity": 0.791136, "balance": 0.354586, "dry_up": 0.682933, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164661, "annualized_volatility": 0.702588, "from_high_reference": -0.846505, "from_low_reference": 0.442857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.110513, "fair_value_reference": 0.308922, "structural_low": 0.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.063028, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.070111, "regime_survival": 0.90625, "best_return": 1.54, "worst_return": -0.334677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.154242, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.153637, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.621908, "worst_return": -0.345455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.30531, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.368453, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.228228, "worst_return": -0.506849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.221453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197861, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.66879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.850394, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.795455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.33213, 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"relative_strength": -56.430607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.125428, "energy": 25.285365, "activity_lines": [ 0.092293, 0.089147, 0.095736, 0.105339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0933, "volume": 1756072, "typical_volume": 3042292.5, "trend": 0.11945, "fair_value": 0.316843, "relative_strength": -54.694105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.41427, "energy": 23.423535, "activity_lines": [ 0.09332, 0.089702, 0.094938, 0.10347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0909, "volume": 1335829, "typical_volume": 2480509.85, "trend": 0.116713, "fair_value": 0.314092, "relative_strength": -53.88668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.483233, "energy": 19.792464, "activity_lines": [ 0.092527, 0.090069, 0.094, 0.101628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.09, "volume": 1103928, "typical_volume": 2245820.65, "trend": 0.113447, "fair_value": 0.311336, "relative_strength": -53.310522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.064656, "energy": 20.57064, "activity_lines": [ 0.091907, 0.090456, 0.093057, 0.099904 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.101, "volume": 1710542, "typical_volume": 2162133.75, "trend": 0.110513, "fair_value": 0.308922, "relative_strength": -46.292877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.406435, "energy": 14.152397, "activity_lines": [ 0.094687, 0.092898, 0.093339, 0.099101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }