{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89f364a2-bba5-481d-85d3-862267337349", "symbol": "ABSLAMC", "name": "Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.303, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.211, "architecture_energy": 20.605, "architecture_maturity": 61.928, "architecture_confidence": 73.934, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.93, "rotation_up": 18.26, "upward_expansion": 54.04, "deceleration": 91.06, "rotation_down": 44.72, "downward_expansion": 24.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 1038.734277, 1071.914704, 1068.874317, 1040.404098 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1025.300049, "trend_reference": 989.10083, "distance_from_trend": 0.036598, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 704.962593, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.454403, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.123747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.261132, "excess_performance": 0.304841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036598, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122819, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.454403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.131237, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.261132, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1163669, "relative_activity": 0.79321, "balance": 0.618238, "dry_up": 1.238604, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065222, "annualized_volatility": 0.313324, "from_high_reference": -0.126792, "from_low_reference": 0.448164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 989.10083, "fair_value_reference": 704.962593, "structural_low": 810.200012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.098961, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.040101, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.068296, "worst_return": -0.16918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009068, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065349, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.004398, "worst_return": -0.174403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.008342, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.04904, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16135, "worst_return": -0.178035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 27.61417, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.605329, "energy": 63.599532, "activity_lines": [ 1129.053418, 1105.020265, 1066.77139, 1021.422731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1122.472046, "volume": 1407078, "typical_volume": 1882309.7, "trend": 967.575828, "fair_value": 692.818904, "relative_strength": 26.553126, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.65411, "energy": 49.136868, "activity_lines": [ 1127.583927, 1111.620588, 1075.929667, 1032.19404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1017.0, "volume": 3536133, "typical_volume": 1968494.15, "trend": 975.794161, "fair_value": 696.872687, "relative_strength": 16.873324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.24662, "energy": 26.503936, "activity_lines": [ 1089.538949, 1098.133775, 1073.953121, 1035.382696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1010.0, "volume": 1161434, "typical_volume": 1570766.05, "trend": 981.674162, "fair_value": 700.851467, "relative_strength": 12.695141, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.89712, "energy": 17.051723, "activity_lines": [ 1058.143213, 1083.617871, 1070.868955, 1037.589524 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1025.300049, "volume": 1163669, "typical_volume": 1467037.95, "trend": 989.10083, "fair_value": 704.962593, "relative_strength": 13.123747, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.210645, "energy": 20.605309, "activity_lines": [ 1038.734277, 1071.914704, 1068.874317, 1040.404098 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }