{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89f43c18-634d-41b0-9d08-2f902890f825", "symbol": "003023", "name": "Chengdu Rainbow Appliance (Group) Shares Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.159, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.747, "architecture_energy": 38.942, "architecture_maturity": 27.318, "architecture_confidence": 65.141, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.91, "rotation_up": 21.98, "upward_expansion": 16.59, "deceleration": 64.15, "rotation_down": 49.72, "downward_expansion": 68.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.448, 20.309634, 22.670162, 23.459646 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.32, "trend_reference": 24.058904, "distance_from_trend": -0.030712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.933358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169898, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.3166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000429, "excess_performance": -0.007828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042479, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169898, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.272274, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20552930, "relative_activity": 1.125013, "balance": 0.272274, "dry_up": 0.95945, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120927, "annualized_volatility": 0.541875, "from_high_reference": -0.309657, "from_low_reference": 0.447548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.058904, "fair_value_reference": 19.933358, "structural_low": 16.110001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007088, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.020758, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.069764, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03729, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04449, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.39271, "worst_return": -0.102591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.07912, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035695, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.393886, "worst_return": -0.134903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 21.02399, 23.370207, 24.995665, 24.910045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.08, "volume": 22360456, "typical_volume": 19557867.85, "trend": 24.445571, "fair_value": 19.921904, "relative_strength": -28.500535, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.574582, "energy": 71.171385, "activity_lines": [ 20.142667, 22.210672, 24.410632, 24.554481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.82, "volume": 15433845, "typical_volume": 19899000.6, "trend": 24.283571, "fair_value": 19.916796, "relative_strength": -22.163579, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.579095, "energy": 81.663613, "activity_lines": [ 19.506667, 21.199518, 23.82174, 24.191541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.68, "volume": 15561057, "typical_volume": 19472331.4, "trend": 24.113904, "fair_value": 19.90438, "relative_strength": -26.808307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.196927, "energy": 83.438903, "activity_lines": [ 18.746667, 20.207077, 23.149802, 23.765505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.09, "volume": 18565174, "typical_volume": 18340897.35, "trend": 24.036904, "fair_value": 19.909375, "relative_strength": -14.72082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.100769, "energy": 66.950861, "activity_lines": [ 19.066, 19.87697, 22.745339, 23.505898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.32, "volume": 20552930, "typical_volume": 18269065.3, "trend": 24.058904, "fair_value": 19.933358, "relative_strength": -5.3166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.746885, "energy": 38.941849, "activity_lines": [ 20.448, 20.309634, 22.670162, 23.459646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }