{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89f9075e-65d8-4deb-b1c8-cea74fd757f4", "symbol": "KWY", "name": "Kingsway Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.724, "architecture_energy": 61.311, "architecture_maturity": 73.572, "architecture_confidence": 92.128, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.42, "rotation_up": 13.26, "upward_expansion": 12.83, "deceleration": 39.12, "rotation_down": 65.04, "downward_expansion": 86.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.48, 9.756909, 10.130476, 10.432516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.24, "trend_reference": 11.006667, "distance_from_trend": -0.069655, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.967821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027306, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.333495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.223654, "excess_performance": -0.349279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069655, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223654, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.458028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 357033, "relative_activity": 1.017544, "balance": 0.458028, "dry_up": 0.986331, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090059, "annualized_volatility": 0.44799, "from_high_reference": -0.379653, "from_low_reference": 0.217598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.006667, "fair_value_reference": 9.967821, "structural_low": 8.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.028739, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.010163, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.428744, "worst_return": -0.151429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049744, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.010265, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.655084, "worst_return": -0.21875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063625, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.011261, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.846847, "worst_return": -0.175781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10.189455, 10.47919, 10.804645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.7, "volume": 457777, "typical_volume": 371301.65, "trend": 11.180333, "fair_value": 9.950449, "relative_strength": -34.886898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.41378, "energy": 65.927266, "activity_lines": [ 9.565333, 9.907273, 10.296143, 10.633441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.91, "volume": 252362, "typical_volume": 367936.15, "trend": 11.084, "fair_value": 9.955449, "relative_strength": -33.343597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.432435, "energy": 73.503437, "activity_lines": [ 9.248, 9.700727, 10.146476, 10.486968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.24, "volume": 357033, "typical_volume": 350877.25, "trend": 11.006667, "fair_value": 9.967821, "relative_strength": -25.333495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.723796, "energy": 61.311351, "activity_lines": [ 9.48, 9.756909, 10.130476, 10.432516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }