{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89ff6cbf-2788-421d-b6bd-39e9381ad83d", "symbol": "4012", "name": "Thob Al Aseel Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.486, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.681, "architecture_energy": 50.751, "architecture_maturity": 4.696, "architecture_confidence": 51.446, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.91, "rotation_up": 20.09, "upward_expansion": 21.55, "deceleration": 41.13, "rotation_down": 62.82, "downward_expansion": 58.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.535168, 3.576619, 3.627605, 3.631567 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.64, "trend_reference": 3.608584, "distance_from_trend": 0.008706, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.933109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074523, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.457394, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011035, "excess_performance": 0.042865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008706, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032465, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003248, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044574, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018978, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011035, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.741141, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4073668, "relative_activity": 1.590324, "balance": 0.741141, "dry_up": 0.761567, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030246, "annualized_volatility": 0.144971, "from_high_reference": -0.080877, "from_low_reference": 0.176362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.608584, "fair_value_reference": 3.933109, "structural_low": 3.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007633, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.026401, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.161905, "worst_return": -0.128373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045842, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.01159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.296504, "worst_return": -0.092557, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.10378, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.499361, "worst_return": -0.208523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021062, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074946, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.049298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056338, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 4.828982, "volume": 5013898, "typical_volume": 3365683.3, "trend": 3.740893, "fair_value": 4.001502, "relative_strength": 33.036969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 3.52352, "volume": 2085095, "typical_volume": 2725630.8, "trend": 3.568544, "fair_value": 3.968043, "relative_strength": 0.901827, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.329554, "energy": 7.505982, "activity_lines": [ 3.64384, 3.666095, 3.678383, 3.646635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.533227, "volume": 1749319, "typical_volume": 2645327.4, "trend": 3.581554, "fair_value": 3.959169, "relative_strength": 2.173231, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.036089, "energy": 20.694007, "activity_lines": [ 3.598681, 3.640435, 3.666197, 3.644356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.484693, "volume": 1033110, "typical_volume": 2512924.8, "trend": 3.591, "fair_value": 3.949144, "relative_strength": 0.248576, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.684991, "energy": 53.439869, "activity_lines": [ 3.547129, 3.608621, 3.649422, 3.638107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.445867, "volume": 947023, "typical_volume": 2391846.35, "trend": 3.596232, "fair_value": 3.939934, "relative_strength": 1.208233, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.594207, "energy": 64.922988, "activity_lines": [ 3.500322, 3.572752, 3.629021, 3.628744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.64, "volume": 4073668, "typical_volume": 2561533.9, "trend": 3.608584, "fair_value": 3.933109, "relative_strength": 4.457394, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.681355, "energy": 50.750927, "activity_lines": [ 3.535168, 3.576619, 3.627605, 3.631567 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }