{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a02a5cb-c464-4af5-996b-91e32f21afbd", "symbol": "IQD", "name": "CI International Quality Dividend Growth Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.198, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.251, "architecture_energy": 73.752, "architecture_maturity": 24.024, "architecture_confidence": 80.237, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 63.56, "upward_expansion": 88.35, "deceleration": 49.61, "rotation_down": 21.55, "downward_expansion": 15.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.555334, 39.33338, 38.695217, 38.225989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.130001, "trend_reference": 37.843352, "distance_from_trend": 0.060424, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.810155, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186922, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.767712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052846, "excess_performance": -0.067575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057234, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038284, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052846, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.065327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1100, "relative_activity": 0.194175, "balance": 1.065327, "dry_up": 0.533981, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017699, "annualized_volatility": 0.155568, "from_high_reference": -0.002981, "from_low_reference": 0.214511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.843352, "fair_value_reference": 33.810155, "structural_low": 34.620791, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.001494, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": 0.001581, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.071766, "worst_return": -0.102765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.004287, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.034946, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.099446, "worst_return": -0.073184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0289, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.042178, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.100247, "worst_return": -0.139956, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.856875, "energy": 81.324445, "activity_lines": [ 38.947059, 38.459314, 37.811008, 37.630637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.34, "volume": 4500, "typical_volume": 6565.0, "trend": 37.499162, "fair_value": 33.553386, "relative_strength": -2.575804, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.561506, "energy": 80.082131, "activity_lines": [ 39.171338, 38.694847, 37.990981, 37.756659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.200001, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 6525.0, "trend": 37.594052, "fair_value": 33.614929, "relative_strength": -2.598617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.430983, "energy": 76.541283, "activity_lines": [ 39.230179, 38.859224, 38.154612, 37.866391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.02, "volume": 5600, "typical_volume": 6380.0, "trend": 37.681945, "fair_value": 33.674106, "relative_strength": -3.093742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.737063, "energy": 71.964582, "activity_lines": [ 39.180667, 38.956499, 38.298686, 37.958387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.470001, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 6055.0, "trend": 37.770235, "fair_value": 33.740772, "relative_strength": -1.419804, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.758314, "energy": 60.104793, "activity_lines": [ 39.278667, 39.102317, 38.473726, 38.073746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.130001, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 5665.0, "trend": 37.843352, "fair_value": 33.810155, "relative_strength": -2.767712, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.251412, "energy": 73.751777, "activity_lines": [ 39.555334, 39.33338, 38.695217, 38.225989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }