{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a061f61-4dc6-4d5f-94b9-2396200e3e69", "symbol": "000796", "name": "Caissa Tourism Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.845, "architecture_energy": 65.31, "architecture_maturity": 90.038, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 27.05, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.0, "rotation_down": 57.23, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.707333, 3.782364, 4.149381, 4.489613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.86, "trend_reference": 5.002333, "distance_from_trend": -0.22836, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.399936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.985846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.397816, "excess_performance": -0.405216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.22836, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172073, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268213, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.397816, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137323275, "relative_activity": 0.858881, "balance": 0.451751, "dry_up": 1.082988, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078318, "annualized_volatility": 0.3341, "from_high_reference": -0.541568, "from_low_reference": 0.138643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.002333, "fair_value_reference": 4.399936, "structural_low": 3.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.009147, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.005522, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.392765, "worst_return": -0.178359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006295, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013443, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.775641, "worst_return": -0.290503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.171687, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.164495, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.888283, "worst_return": -0.094737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-31", "close": 3.81, "volume": 193646407, "typical_volume": 163328766.8, "trend": 5.113667, "fair_value": 4.403205, "relative_strength": -31.976274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.947818, "energy": 67.475924, "activity_lines": [ 3.646667, 3.807636, 4.215667, 4.570495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.86, "volume": 137323275, "typical_volume": 159886240.0, "trend": 5.002333, "fair_value": 4.399936, "relative_strength": -33.985846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.845098, "energy": 65.309845, "activity_lines": [ 3.707333, 3.782364, 4.149381, 4.489613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }