{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a07af13-8b40-4d5f-8187-d586e6dd126a", "symbol": "WOL", "name": "Wolford Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.163, "architecture_energy": 49.136, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.649, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 24.37, "upward_expansion": 7.19, "deceleration": 60.72, "rotation_down": 53.58, "downward_expansion": 80.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.290133, 2.299309, 2.469248, 2.60009 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.5, "trend_reference": 2.759933, "distance_from_trend": -0.094181, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.593321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.304265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.748845, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.213836, "excess_performance": -0.388083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094181, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117668, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.304265, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089787, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.357488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.213836, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573079, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5369, "relative_activity": 2.202034, "balance": 0.573079, "dry_up": 1.285374, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094092, "annualized_volatility": 0.445855, "from_high_reference": -0.342105, "from_low_reference": 0.388889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.759933, "fair_value_reference": 3.593321, "structural_low": 1.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.032468, "positive_rate": 0.410256, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.032245, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.656, "worst_return": -0.238579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.0925, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.107712, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.536, "worst_return": -0.225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.124058, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.137181, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.045872, "worst_return": -0.304762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060302, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035176, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070352, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087912, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.079768, "energy": 89.996248, "activity_lines": [ 2.332, 2.48, 2.647524, 2.757333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.02, "volume": 6864, "typical_volume": 2528.85, "trend": 2.856, "fair_value": 3.641667, "relative_strength": -47.897357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.021123, "energy": 95.632095, "activity_lines": [ 2.206667, 2.375636, 2.576095, 2.700387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.0, "volume": 288, "typical_volume": 2335.85, "trend": 2.813333, "fair_value": 3.622564, "relative_strength": -48.391398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.849573, "energy": 93.448263, "activity_lines": [ 2.114667, 2.285091, 2.507619, 2.645161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.398, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 2201.15, "trend": 2.783267, "fair_value": 3.607295, "relative_strength": -37.291219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.210668, "energy": 84.079672, "activity_lines": [ 2.188667, 2.279636, 2.482, 2.618366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.5, "volume": 5369, "typical_volume": 2438.2, "trend": 2.759933, "fair_value": 3.593321, "relative_strength": -35.748845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.162913, "energy": 49.135542, "activity_lines": [ 2.290133, 2.299309, 2.469248, 2.60009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }