{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a092f66-ef7d-4033-92fa-1de01db65934", "symbol": "URB-A", "name": "Urbana Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.328, "architecture_energy": 14.716, "architecture_maturity": 13.697, "architecture_confidence": 59.482, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.82, "rotation_up": 34.87, "upward_expansion": 25.4, "deceleration": 37.93, "rotation_down": 22.4, "downward_expansion": 48.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.522, 8.458545, 8.484143, 8.515849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.55, "trend_reference": 8.621667, "distance_from_trend": -0.008312, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.074494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.407525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.084233, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039326, "excess_performance": -0.159747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008312, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00194, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.407525, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126654, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039326, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.23315, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90800, "relative_activity": 2.145304, "balance": 2.23315, "dry_up": 1.382162, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032749, "annualized_volatility": 0.163209, "from_high_reference": -0.109961, "from_low_reference": 0.264998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.621667, "fair_value_reference": 6.074494, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.009558, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001801, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.059945, "worst_return": -0.046753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027569, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020457, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.093023, "worst_return": 0.025138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.064935, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.071566, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205074, "worst_return": 0.051424, "sufficient": false }, { 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5.951509, "relative_strength": -6.509483, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.238848, "energy": 40.599659, "activity_lines": [ 8.353333, 8.406727, 8.476619, 8.555062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.5, "volume": 26500, "typical_volume": 37870.0, "trend": 8.682667, "fair_value": 5.982518, "relative_strength": -5.874495, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.848164, "energy": 25.677679, "activity_lines": [ 8.405333, 8.410909, 8.47581, 8.543208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.49, "volume": 45300, "typical_volume": 36765.0, "trend": 8.670417, "fair_value": 6.012922, "relative_strength": -6.214009, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.109558, "energy": 15.880559, "activity_lines": [ 8.445333, 8.416909, 8.475095, 8.530777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.54, "volume": 71400, "typical_volume": 38540.0, "trend": 8.650966, "fair_value": 6.043586, "relative_strength": -5.229025, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.391911, "energy": 15.420681, "activity_lines": [ 8.491333, 8.436727, 8.479429, 8.522363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.55, "volume": 90800, "typical_volume": 42325.0, "trend": 8.621667, "fair_value": 6.074494, "relative_strength": -8.084233, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.328454, "energy": 14.716316, "activity_lines": [ 8.522, 8.458545, 8.484143, 8.515849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }