{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a09313e-b0df-4276-b562-7061c10eec44", "symbol": "NIDHOG", "name": "Nidhogg Resources Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.978, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.97, "architecture_energy": 33.72, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.183, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.59, "rotation_up": 23.53, "upward_expansion": 4.14, "deceleration": 48.58, "rotation_down": 41.19, "downward_expansion": 72.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.442667, 0.456382, 0.468252, 0.530587 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.455, "trend_reference": 0.636867, "distance_from_trend": -0.285565, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.919025, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.923129, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -59.989843, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.488764, "excess_performance": -0.550258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.285565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303768, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.923129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028857, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.599898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170975, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.488764, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.655883, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175774, "relative_activity": 0.457446, "balance": 0.655883, "dry_up": 0.44897, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.272358, "annualized_volatility": 1.806467, "from_high_reference": -0.847315, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.636867, "fair_value_reference": 5.919025, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.070988, "positive_rate": 0.361702, "directional_follow_through": 0.638298, "median_excess_return": -0.101251, "regime_survival": 0.893617, "best_return": 2.611111, "worst_return": -0.67433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.295377, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.282453, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.846154, "worst_return": -0.642534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.258373, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.235042, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.035461, "worst_return": -0.79638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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519932.95, "trend": 0.6682, "fair_value": 6.754229, "relative_strength": -60.398839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.940097, "energy": 23.213633, "activity_lines": [ 0.474933, 0.471182, 0.488357, 0.56171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.385, "volume": 282090, "typical_volume": 503320.3, "trend": 0.6542, "fair_value": 6.225113, "relative_strength": -66.362464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.973846, "energy": 46.652624, "activity_lines": [ 0.444667, 0.456655, 0.47359, 0.543439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.455, "volume": 175774, "typical_volume": 384250.55, "trend": 0.636867, "fair_value": 5.919025, "relative_strength": -59.989843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.969679, "energy": 33.719939, "activity_lines": [ 0.442667, 0.456382, 0.468252, 0.530587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }