{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a09e72e-86c0-4e44-8f8b-815343429cdd", "symbol": "6984", "name": "ACpay Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.873, "architecture_energy": 65.815, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.571, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.73, "rotation_up": 16.16, "upward_expansion": 14.27, "deceleration": 38.84, "rotation_down": 68.92, "downward_expansion": 92.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.813333, 16.695455, 17.604762, 19.062581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.75, "trend_reference": 21.188333, "distance_from_trend": -0.256666, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.428767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.445984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.478903, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.40566, "excess_performance": -0.847032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256666, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122697, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.445984, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.554789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070748, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.40566, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.072028, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 420, "relative_activity": 0.006492, "balance": 1.072028, "dry_up": 0.204169, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165568, "annualized_volatility": 0.740776, "from_high_reference": -0.539474, "from_low_reference": 0.179775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.188333, "fair_value_reference": 28.428767, "structural_low": 13.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.075584, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.123851, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.30605, "worst_return": -0.394397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.107692, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.347234, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.071429, "worst_return": -0.271552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.171429, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.5974, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.171429, "worst_return": -0.171429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008969, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004445, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105839, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.37251, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 31.950001, "volume": 169204, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-10-27", "close": 31.1, "volume": 490375, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": 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"activity_lines": [ 17.66, 18.000909, 18.830952, 20.317097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.2, "volume": 29667, "typical_volume": 65121.9, "trend": 21.853333, "fair_value": 28.607639, "relative_strength": -56.688814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.071334, "energy": 54.447063, "activity_lines": [ 16.69, 17.509091, 18.355952, 19.854194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.35, "volume": 17507, "typical_volume": 64982.3, "trend": 21.516667, "fair_value": 28.516207, "relative_strength": -56.231534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.11449, "energy": 61.188773, "activity_lines": [ 16.08, 17.023636, 17.939524, 19.434624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.75, "volume": 420, "typical_volume": 64695.2, "trend": 21.188333, "fair_value": 28.428767, "relative_strength": -55.478903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.872828, "energy": 65.814958, "activity_lines": [ 15.813333, 16.695455, 17.604762, 19.062581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }