{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a0a305a-1fd1-4c74-940d-0ca935f929f4", "symbol": "AWV", "name": "Captii Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.306, "architecture_energy": 86.006, "architecture_maturity": 15.41, "architecture_confidence": 81.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.73, "rotation_up": 8.78, "upward_expansion": 20.93, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 82.6, "downward_expansion": 98.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.241, 0.246273, 0.253548, 0.257989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.24, "trend_reference": 0.2645, "distance_from_trend": -0.092628, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.27324, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121653, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.021419, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.127273, "excess_performance": -0.282108, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029951, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121653, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139458, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.168036, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035256, "annualized_volatility": 0.371231, "from_high_reference": -0.283582, "from_low_reference": 0.116279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2645, "fair_value_reference": 0.27324, "structural_low": 0.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.002261, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.136364, "worst_return": -0.245283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.035654, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.016878, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.211268, "worst_return": -0.305263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063492, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.102854, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.168081, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.192982, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.198203, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10017, "worst_return": -0.208054, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.144928, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033898, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.263158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.215686, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067797, 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13390.0, "trend": 0.265833, "fair_value": 0.275881, "relative_strength": -20.263531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.153613, "energy": 48.271555, "activity_lines": [ 0.250667, 0.254, 0.259262, 0.262914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.24, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13390.0, "trend": 0.2655, "fair_value": 0.274939, "relative_strength": -21.083022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.561735, "energy": 59.593273, "activity_lines": [ 0.246, 0.250727, 0.25719, 0.261247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.24, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13390.0, "trend": 0.265, "fair_value": 0.27409, "relative_strength": -21.35923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.507436, "energy": 67.939125, "activity_lines": [ 0.243, 0.248364, 0.255286, 0.259602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.24, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13390.0, "trend": 0.2645, "fair_value": 0.27324, "relative_strength": -22.021419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.306136, "energy": 86.006457, "activity_lines": [ 0.241, 0.246273, 0.253548, 0.257989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }