{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a0c2b85-37ed-47e0-a90d-cb84e8cbacf2", "symbol": "603398", "name": "Mubang High-Tech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.064, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.219, "architecture_energy": 49.013, "architecture_maturity": 11.185, "architecture_confidence": 60.71, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.43, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 24.83, "deceleration": 52.54, "rotation_down": 67.2, "downward_expansion": 47.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.232, 11.510727, 12.399762, 12.181914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.87, "trend_reference": 11.623333, "distance_from_trend": -0.064812, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.403974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.954574, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077304, "excess_performance": 0.120508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064812, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245347, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117281, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099546, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.449609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077304, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.117807, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47092040, "relative_activity": 1.191667, "balance": 1.117807, "dry_up": 1.524748, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16163, "annualized_volatility": 0.605389, "from_high_reference": -0.302758, "from_low_reference": 1.148221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.623333, "fair_value_reference": 14.403974, "structural_low": 7.66, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.101207, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.044835, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.133581, "worst_return": -0.314785, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.338322, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.382707, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.053267, "worst_return": -0.623377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.385935, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.453475, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.14169, "worst_return": -0.630179, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.831731, "energy": 37.011173, "activity_lines": [ 13.943333, 13.980182, 13.384095, 12.553247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.3, "volume": 66916872, "typical_volume": 38692280.65, "trend": 11.478, "fair_value": 14.683974, "relative_strength": 22.672927, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.086519, "energy": 12.04042, "activity_lines": [ 13.083333, 13.490364, 13.261952, 12.548473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.96, "volume": 73018662, "typical_volume": 40248097.0, "trend": 11.517, "fair_value": 14.586474, "relative_strength": -4.725058, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -18.673738, "energy": 27.945226, "activity_lines": [ 11.564667, 12.615091, 12.908857, 12.386022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.02, "volume": 53990960, "typical_volume": 41175383.3, "trend": 11.536667, "fair_value": 14.489423, "relative_strength": -5.262592, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.550097, "energy": 47.237077, "activity_lines": [ 10.42, 11.842727, 12.564381, 12.224925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.87, "volume": 47092040, "typical_volume": 39517771.3, "trend": 11.623333, "fair_value": 14.403974, "relative_strength": 9.954574, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.218593, "energy": 49.012874, "activity_lines": [ 10.232, 11.510727, 12.399762, 12.181914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }