{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a10c1a5-844b-4d15-9d75-017de2b1da5e", "symbol": "COCP", "name": "Cocrystal Pharma Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.734, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.44, "architecture_energy": 51.447, "architecture_maturity": 8.833, "architecture_confidence": 95.023, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.68, "rotation_up": 17.62, "upward_expansion": 9.83, "deceleration": 42.16, "rotation_down": 57.52, "downward_expansion": 83.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.94602, 0.965635, 1.053109, 1.085549 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.06, "trend_reference": 1.09892, "distance_from_trend": -0.035417, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.605767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.339879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.273323, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092896, "excess_performance": -0.094557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035417, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015005, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.339879, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173468, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192733, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092896, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.656295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 687803, "relative_activity": 0.088951, "balance": 0.656295, "dry_up": 0.037144, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138447, "annualized_volatility": 0.861663, "from_high_reference": -0.602996, "from_low_reference": 0.394737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.09892, "fair_value_reference": 1.605767, "structural_low": 0.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.007714, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.048376, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.485849, "worst_return": -0.449074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.080614, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.169368, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.536048, "worst_return": -0.456288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.123973, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.216523, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.354206, "worst_return": -0.513709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099976, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070423, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.305556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.14876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195804, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111607, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.177647, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.72, "volume": 100103, "typical_volume": 274722.95, "trend": 2.39612, "fair_value": 8.571516, "relative_strength": -10.968551, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.656784, 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1.084442, 1.160609, 1.141928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.04, "volume": 152220, "typical_volume": 7726174.95, "trend": 1.112427, "fair_value": 1.66051, "relative_strength": -26.257936, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.193178, "energy": 37.138101, "activity_lines": [ 1.014607, 1.060911, 1.149716, 1.137298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.01, "volume": 91844, "typical_volume": 7721975.55, "trend": 1.111093, "fair_value": 1.650767, "relative_strength": -28.359259, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.126608, "energy": 32.304076, "activity_lines": [ 1.016993, 1.039016, 1.135609, 1.13069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.95, "volume": 141594, "typical_volume": 7715933.25, "trend": 1.10976, "fair_value": 1.639613, "relative_strength": -28.583219, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.807033, "energy": 43.762076, "activity_lines": [ 0.996333, 1.01294, 1.11578, 1.120297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9001, "volume": 144308, "typical_volume": 7715101.65, "trend": 1.107347, "fair_value": 1.629165, "relative_strength": -30.169853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.468734, "energy": 63.556171, "activity_lines": [ 0.962033, 0.9867, 1.091674, 1.106771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.82, "volume": 175133, "typical_volume": 7714444.55, "trend": 1.101587, "fair_value": 1.617498, "relative_strength": -35.30487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.06579, "energy": 72.238988, "activity_lines": [ 0.90736, 0.951349, 1.060463, 1.088232 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.06, "volume": 687803, "typical_volume": 7732420.95, "trend": 1.09892, "fair_value": 1.605767, "relative_strength": -19.273323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.439851, "energy": 51.447008, "activity_lines": [ 0.94602, 0.965635, 1.053109, 1.085549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }