{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a113f0e-2c81-424b-a7b1-b0f70a472c58", "symbol": "600733", "name": "BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.785, "architecture_energy": 44.868, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.25, "rotation_up": 27.54, "upward_expansion": 19.71, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 44.71, "downward_expansion": 72.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.322667, 5.218182, 5.678143, 6.140301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.5, "trend_reference": 6.785667, "distance_from_trend": -0.189468, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.249679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.241346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.036248, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.31677, "excess_performance": -0.273566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189468, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.241346, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082439, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31677, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.355248, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 736603560, "relative_activity": 2.277491, "balance": 0.355248, "dry_up": 1.823193, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099301, "annualized_volatility": 0.449512, "from_high_reference": -0.431818, "from_low_reference": 0.238739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.785667, "fair_value_reference": 7.249679, "structural_low": 4.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.027701, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.03097, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.624746, "worst_return": -0.209877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.136187, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.073539, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.361055, "worst_return": -0.379424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018817, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.123652, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.415822, "worst_return": -0.357609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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433570371, "typical_volume": 285423363.75, "trend": 7.055, "fair_value": 7.252244, "relative_strength": -35.905954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.225548, "energy": 91.267991, "activity_lines": [ 4.839333, 5.242909, 5.942952, 6.437978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.73, "volume": 306225244, "typical_volume": 278025176.25, "trend": 6.939, "fair_value": 7.246346, "relative_strength": -34.568442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.118471, "energy": 79.74345, "activity_lines": [ 4.752667, 5.079636, 5.776857, 6.287978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.02, "volume": 882285700, "typical_volume": 305309589.25, "trend": 6.87, "fair_value": 7.249295, "relative_strength": -16.568349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.799007, "energy": 62.355401, "activity_lines": [ 5.160667, 5.191091, 5.748095, 6.228688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.5, "volume": 736603560, "typical_volume": 323427684.25, "trend": 6.785667, "fair_value": 7.249679, "relative_strength": -25.036248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.785234, "energy": 44.867839, "activity_lines": [ 5.322667, 5.218182, 5.678143, 6.140301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }