{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a28f230-64d9-47f8-945c-d895798ecd71", "symbol": "IMFL", "name": "INVESCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED DYNAMIC MULTIFACTOR ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.918, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.883, "architecture_energy": 29.388, "architecture_maturity": 53.187, "architecture_confidence": 87.029, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.47, "rotation_up": 36.95, "upward_expansion": 62.51, "deceleration": 90.17, "rotation_down": 25.71, "downward_expansion": 11.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.144667, 34.104336, 33.925716, 33.566068 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.79, "trend_reference": 33.109301, "distance_from_trend": 0.050762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.080822, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.336285, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063643, "excess_performance": -0.061982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054234, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01923, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003363, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063643, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.311508, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335085, "relative_activity": 0.901659, "balance": 2.311508, "dry_up": 1.031884, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03193, "annualized_volatility": 0.18542, "from_high_reference": -0.031933, "from_low_reference": 0.318816 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.109301, "fair_value_reference": 26.080822, "structural_low": 30.28, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.013093, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.009633, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.086887, "worst_return": -0.069469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.031345, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.029657, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.165326, "worst_return": -0.111725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106464, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058952, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.20829, "worst_return": 0.015934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.900773, "energy": 37.540299, "activity_lines": [ 34.217305, 34.121369, 33.624267, 33.248809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.52, "volume": 258088, "typical_volume": 370950.8, "trend": 32.690429, "fair_value": 25.850553, "relative_strength": 0.943758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.690072, "energy": 22.754765, "activity_lines": [ 33.955611, 34.030617, 33.659454, 33.311352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.42, "volume": 194297, "typical_volume": 347398.55, "trend": 32.81816, "fair_value": 25.920406, "relative_strength": 1.117268, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.694814, "energy": 16.697015, "activity_lines": [ 33.718667, 33.928852, 33.689366, 33.358421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.21, "volume": 746454, "typical_volume": 361391.75, "trend": 32.963309, "fair_value": 25.997941, "relative_strength": 2.239126, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.697657, "energy": 17.352278, "activity_lines": [ 33.833333, 33.966964, 33.786976, 33.448217 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.79, "volume": 335085, "typical_volume": 371631.8, "trend": 33.109301, "fair_value": 26.080822, "relative_strength": 0.336285, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.883243, "energy": 29.38777, "activity_lines": [ 34.144667, 34.104336, 33.925716, 33.566068 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }