{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a34a910-2622-4f1e-8cf3-6c2e6d731391", "symbol": "LII", "name": "Lennox International Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.132, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.379, "architecture_energy": 45.143, "architecture_maturity": 21.254, "architecture_confidence": 59.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.0, "rotation_up": 8.91, "upward_expansion": 12.42, "deceleration": 57.84, "rotation_down": 67.34, "downward_expansion": 66.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 475.043333, 505.677215, 509.361732, 507.849167 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 439.77, "trend_reference": 509.589654, "distance_from_trend": -0.137012, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 515.607253, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.147083, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.847353, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.16789, "excess_performance": -0.293515, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137012, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015254, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.147083, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188774, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.016694, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3373575, "relative_activity": 1.462481, "balance": 1.016694, "dry_up": 1.326331, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104156, "annualized_volatility": 0.500047, "from_high_reference": -0.280992, "from_low_reference": 0.068947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 509.589654, "fair_value_reference": 515.607253, "structural_low": 411.405, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.016153, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038184, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014599, "worst_return": -0.046905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.007922, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062919, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027372, "worst_return": -0.043217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.154296, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.149354, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.151832, "worst_return": -0.15676, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"relative_strength": -3.844953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.238702, "energy": 47.219529, "activity_lines": [ 549.336982, 541.727911, 524.407961, 518.957713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 415.88, "volume": 5245571, "typical_volume": 2233352.7, "trend": 512.555621, "fair_value": 515.105726, "relative_strength": -26.117274, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.121334, "energy": 22.835055, "activity_lines": [ 503.32, 520.916087, 515.595473, 512.545013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 439.77, "volume": 3373575, "typical_volume": 2306747.15, "trend": 509.589654, "fair_value": 515.607253, "relative_strength": -23.847353, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.378598, "energy": 45.143249, "activity_lines": [ 475.043333, 505.677215, 509.361732, 507.849167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }