{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a38017e-4740-4abe-8780-3f90d3a4888c", "symbol": "600644", "name": "Leshan Electric Power Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.149, "architecture_energy": 23.493, "architecture_maturity": 67.458, "architecture_confidence": 77.217, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.63, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 15.7, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 27.15, "downward_expansion": 63.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.561333, 9.192579, 9.847066, 10.40107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.38, "trend_reference": 10.920479, "distance_from_trend": -0.049492, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.716182, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.605478, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087071, "excess_performance": -0.043867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037137, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.190888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205814, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060099, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087071, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.154929, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 275312446, "relative_activity": 1.772825, "balance": 1.154929, "dry_up": 1.68462, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122058, "annualized_volatility": 0.547475, "from_high_reference": -0.299122, "from_low_reference": 0.382157 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.920479, "fair_value_reference": 8.716182, "structural_low": 7.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.023451, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.027872, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.308953, "worst_return": -0.051376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043119, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.010514, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.303704, "worst_return": -0.174716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.144737, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.058885, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.288355, "worst_return": -0.040055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.169415, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16194, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039234, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138962, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"typical_volume": 160732279.15, "trend": 10.993146, "fair_value": 8.66131, "relative_strength": -31.995279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.793831, "energy": 91.55268, "activity_lines": [ 8.336526, 9.305725, 10.357006, 10.764226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.01, "volume": 102523337, "typical_volume": 153538412.15, "trend": 10.943479, "fair_value": 8.670925, "relative_strength": -16.864899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.001196, "energy": 83.616104, "activity_lines": [ 8.460207, 9.116844, 10.152604, 10.636281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.39, "volume": 405580951, "typical_volume": 152678824.95, "trend": 10.922812, "fair_value": 8.682336, "relative_strength": -13.387554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.469821, "energy": 52.990087, "activity_lines": [ 8.768667, 9.04938, 10.003155, 10.536056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.35, "volume": 263041687, "typical_volume": 151490197.1, "trend": 10.899479, "fair_value": 8.695605, "relative_strength": -13.277752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.170929, "energy": 38.686607, "activity_lines": [ 9.044667, 9.010986, 9.868277, 10.434585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.38, "volume": 275312446, "typical_volume": 155295930.35, "trend": 10.920479, "fair_value": 8.716182, "relative_strength": -5.605478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.149298, "energy": 23.493023, "activity_lines": [ 9.561333, 9.192579, 9.847066, 10.40107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }