{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a383897-d3e7-4314-82c4-99e5a5d18ab4", "symbol": "300432", "name": "Fulin Precision Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.834, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.629, "architecture_energy": 86.525, "architecture_maturity": 26.432, "architecture_confidence": 86.424, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.84, "rotation_up": 8.61, "upward_expansion": 21.78, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 79.58, "downward_expansion": 97.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.644, 17.100728, 19.975757, 20.665646 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.030001, "trend_reference": 20.829122, "distance_from_trend": -0.230404, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.088706, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137791, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.239996, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054835, "excess_performance": -0.062235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230404, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.895647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.431556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054835, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.612369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 189903701, "relative_activity": 0.810868, "balance": 0.612369, "dry_up": 0.839383, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135329, "annualized_volatility": 0.669253, "from_high_reference": -0.441998, "from_low_reference": 0.297976 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.829122, "fair_value_reference": 14.088706, "structural_low": 14.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018323, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.01719, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.044204, "worst_return": -0.415209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.03349, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.074402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202419, "worst_return": -0.510204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.075665, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.031613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278226, "worst_return": -0.305869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210019, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042742, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119712, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188254, 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"mixed", "direction": -50.535146, "energy": 76.054653, "activity_lines": [ 17.504, 19.590602, 21.897428, 21.680229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.22, "volume": 222918656, "typical_volume": 254324595.65, "trend": 20.871122, "fair_value": 14.023993, "relative_strength": -19.387765, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.167372, "energy": 79.402321, "activity_lines": [ 16.332667, 18.514571, 21.210887, 21.31549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.62, "volume": 182412350, "typical_volume": 253454908.3, "trend": 20.851455, "fair_value": 14.052996, "relative_strength": -16.055129, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.344186, "energy": 79.402654, "activity_lines": [ 15.804, 17.688966, 20.568965, 20.976708 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.030001, "volume": 189903701, "typical_volume": 234197924.3, "trend": 20.829122, "fair_value": 14.088706, "relative_strength": -18.239996, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.629356, "energy": 86.524556, "activity_lines": [ 15.644, 17.100728, 19.975757, 20.665646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }