{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a3a19e3-b02a-4126-b67a-20e33f2614c5", "symbol": "ORTI-B", "name": "Ortivus AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.706, "architecture_energy": 41.154, "architecture_maturity": 19.254, "architecture_confidence": 90.771, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.21, "rotation_up": 48.33, "upward_expansion": 75.84, "deceleration": 55.89, "rotation_down": 16.97, "downward_expansion": 7.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.883333, 1.829727, 1.780738, 1.728774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.97, "trend_reference": 1.69, "distance_from_trend": 0.16568, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.973973, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002013, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.823477, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018088, "excess_performance": -0.043407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.16568, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136389, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002013, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156548, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.208235, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018088, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.824485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36070, "relative_activity": 1.024953, "balance": 2.824485, "dry_up": 0.685627, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151503, "annualized_volatility": 0.460001, "from_high_reference": -0.079439, "from_low_reference": 1.456359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.69, "fair_value_reference": 1.973973, "structural_low": 1.185, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.015296, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.002595, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.592593, "worst_return": -0.361702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010901, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029678, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.277652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.086748, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.130095, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.541126, "worst_return": -0.289617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.337838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.289508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.121429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", 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"energy": 20.375634, "activity_lines": [ 1.765667, 1.773818, 1.69031, 1.660097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.74, "volume": 30465, "typical_volume": 40996.3, "trend": 1.603833, "fair_value": 2.03955, "relative_strength": 12.668417, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.99381, "energy": 17.280014, "activity_lines": [ 1.754, 1.770364, 1.700952, 1.670022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.74, "volume": 9110, "typical_volume": 40039.75, "trend": 1.6215, "fair_value": 2.02314, "relative_strength": 13.458565, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.388951, "energy": 14.59015, "activity_lines": [ 1.743667, 1.762545, 1.711357, 1.678806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.74, "volume": 8945, "typical_volume": 37542.2, "trend": 1.639167, "fair_value": 2.005896, "relative_strength": 11.342115, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.80268, "energy": 13.258305, "activity_lines": [ 1.737333, 1.756545, 1.72081, 1.686452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.99, "volume": 42389, "typical_volume": 38334.15, "trend": 1.664833, "fair_value": 1.990191, "relative_strength": 24.99344, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.488024, "energy": 27.580884, "activity_lines": [ 1.820667, 1.796727, 1.752952, 1.709086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.97, "volume": 36070, "typical_volume": 35191.85, "trend": 1.69, "fair_value": 1.973973, "relative_strength": 20.823477, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.705638, "energy": 41.154411, "activity_lines": [ 1.883333, 1.829727, 1.780738, 1.728774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }