{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a3a6793-9c51-4d6b-8669-a6d0636a6c66", "symbol": "KSHITIJPOL", "name": "Kshitij Polyline Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.22, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.635, "architecture_energy": 45.54, "architecture_maturity": 44.057, "architecture_confidence": 73.158, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.28, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 20.46, "deceleration": 58.9, "rotation_down": 70.31, "downward_expansion": 47.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.846, 3.415273, 3.814095, 3.60243 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.81, "trend_reference": 3.260667, "distance_from_trend": -0.138213, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.554822, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.383071, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.430416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.300926, "excess_performance": 0.344635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138213, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.383071, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231482, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.57853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.300926, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.919348, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4214700, "relative_activity": 0.957679, "balance": 0.919348, "dry_up": 1.837512, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.264714, "annualized_volatility": 1.076989, "from_high_reference": -0.589181, "from_low_reference": 0.494681 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.260667, "fair_value_reference": 4.554822, "structural_low": 2.06, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048707, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.066078, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.027864, "worst_return": -0.247396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.280178, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.234764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.117647, "worst_return": -0.442708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.357039, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.342743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029412, "worst_return": -0.74349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 3.595717, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 3.525614, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 8.024768, "worst_return": -0.833333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.32967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.207156, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.206897, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.313525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091445, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051661, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.268293, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185751, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128514, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.5, "volume": 363657, "typical_volume": 2939940.05, "trend": 15.688333, "fair_value": 11.618589, "relative_strength": -78.485726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.391417, "energy": 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"typical_volume": 3569972.65, "trend": 3.230667, "fair_value": 4.622514, "relative_strength": -18.522099, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.050243, "energy": 33.191985, "activity_lines": [ 3.438, 4.236364, 4.033667, 3.671849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.86, "volume": 5404143, "typical_volume": 3805693.3, "trend": 3.236667, "fair_value": 4.596617, "relative_strength": -4.093483, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.206976, "energy": 41.929889, "activity_lines": [ 3.094, 3.94, 3.961048, 3.647935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.97, "volume": 9041902, "typical_volume": 4226762.35, "trend": 3.248667, "fair_value": 4.57463, "relative_strength": -2.746774, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.557754, "energy": 41.277559, "activity_lines": [ 2.950667, 3.683091, 3.896714, 3.630731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.81, "volume": 4214700, "typical_volume": 4400951.05, "trend": 3.260667, "fair_value": 4.554822, "relative_strength": -8.430416, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.635355, "energy": 45.540119, "activity_lines": [ 2.846, 3.415273, 3.814095, 3.60243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }