{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a47c2ac-2952-4e10-b9a3-825ea611fa67", "symbol": "PXF", "name": "INVESCO RAFI DEVELOPED MARKETS EX-U.S. ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.314, "architecture_energy": 52.383, "architecture_maturity": 10.861, "architecture_confidence": 88.892, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.34, "rotation_up": 54.3, "upward_expansion": 78.99, "deceleration": 55.7, "rotation_down": 21.36, "downward_expansion": 7.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.083667, 76.521265, 75.888122, 74.826428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 78.885, "trend_reference": 73.445384, "distance_from_trend": 0.074063, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.004785, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.460704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.031154, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103077, "excess_performance": -0.022548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06038, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.460704, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030312, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035858, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103077, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.058361, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 776955, "relative_activity": 1.649305, "balance": 2.058361, "dry_up": 0.958771, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028433, "annualized_volatility": 0.188888, "from_high_reference": -0.001582, "from_low_reference": 0.371084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.445384, "fair_value_reference": 54.004785, "structural_low": 67.084969, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.018487, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.007827, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.085899, "worst_return": -0.0679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.049187, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.020349, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.145255, "worst_return": -0.082906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050301, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.05764, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.167361, "worst_return": -0.148895, "sufficient": true }, { 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73.736905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.38, "volume": 356005, "typical_volume": 564468.1, "trend": 72.330797, "fair_value": 53.320128, "relative_strength": 3.1017, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.666567, "energy": 25.786368, "activity_lines": [ 75.685189, 75.828872, 74.94587, 73.95766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.52, "volume": 224213, "typical_volume": 504156.35, "trend": 72.672536, "fair_value": 53.532384, "relative_strength": 3.679537, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.32474, "energy": 24.705234, "activity_lines": [ 75.570667, 75.779235, 75.13461, 74.163415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.11, "volume": 449460, "typical_volume": 467074.05, "trend": 73.045761, "fair_value": 53.762461, "relative_strength": 4.458023, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.694828, "energy": 35.416925, "activity_lines": [ 76.094667, 76.001429, 75.447189, 74.449703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.885, "volume": 776955, "typical_volume": 471080.35, "trend": 73.445384, "fair_value": 54.004785, "relative_strength": 3.031154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.314036, "energy": 52.383217, "activity_lines": [ 77.083667, 76.521265, 75.888122, 74.826428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }