{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a4b3940-e998-47aa-8efe-9b71d04300dd", "symbol": "HBC", "name": "Hofseth BioCare ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.472, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.934, "architecture_energy": 17.268, "architecture_maturity": 45.839, "architecture_confidence": 41.312, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.38, "rotation_up": 39.48, "upward_expansion": 67.26, "deceleration": 64.51, "rotation_down": 19.61, "downward_expansion": 5.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.377667, 1.375182, 1.345952, 1.345785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.35, "trend_reference": 1.343333, "distance_from_trend": 0.004963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.985705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.320141, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.59223, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045936, "excess_performance": -0.17093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004963, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.320141, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114036, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045936, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765785, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 242271, "relative_activity": 0.324833, "balance": 0.765785, "dry_up": 0.850718, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.169516, "annualized_volatility": 0.39225, "from_high_reference": -0.442149, "from_low_reference": 0.227273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.343333, "fair_value_reference": 1.985705, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.077441, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.079149, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.190311, "worst_return": -0.238235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.127861, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.140573, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.171717, "worst_return": -0.392523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.170188, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.237202, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.429907, "worst_return": -0.471347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.114486, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.274781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.107744, "worst_return": -0.551576, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.255474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.292857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172897, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.106061, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.278689, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.224138, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068966, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.04, "volume": 312970, "typical_volume": 558624.4, "trend": 2.978333, "fair_value": 5.605148, "relative_strength": -2.804609, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance 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"activity_lines": [ 1.432333, 1.365091, 1.343238, 1.343688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.365, "volume": 312215, "typical_volume": 711094.2, "trend": 1.344, "fair_value": 2.007756, "relative_strength": -20.523232, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.87645, "energy": 36.578171, "activity_lines": [ 1.423667, 1.371273, 1.345238, 1.345054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.35, "volume": 1759876, "typical_volume": 770209.35, "trend": 1.344667, "fair_value": 1.996282, "relative_strength": -21.026816, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.789213, "energy": 31.090902, "activity_lines": [ 1.402333, 1.373818, 1.345476, 1.345441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.35, "volume": 242271, "typical_volume": 745833.1, "trend": 1.343333, "fair_value": 1.985705, "relative_strength": -20.59223, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.9341, "energy": 17.267862, "activity_lines": [ 1.377667, 1.375182, 1.345952, 1.345785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }