{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a5517c6-e3f9-4392-907d-6725aa64d01c", "symbol": "8458", "name": "1 Production Film Co.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.931, "architecture_energy": 39.36, "architecture_maturity": 73.863, "architecture_confidence": 89.527, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.37, "rotation_up": 18.06, "upward_expansion": 5.77, "deceleration": 44.35, "rotation_down": 55.92, "downward_expansion": 81.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.376667, 14.671818, 14.756905, 15.196022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.95, "trend_reference": 15.911667, "distance_from_trend": -0.123285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.211218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309789, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.075258, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.214085, "excess_performance": -0.655457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109172, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309789, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008124, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.480753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.214085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.191326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17010, "relative_activity": 0.229342, "balance": 2.191326, "dry_up": 0.636484, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118831, "annualized_volatility": 0.559674, "from_high_reference": -0.442, "from_low_reference": 0.073077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.911667, "fair_value_reference": 20.211218, "structural_low": 13.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.005693, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009457, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.473354, "worst_return": -0.224138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.004975, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.041399, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.685065, "worst_return": -0.14011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.09204, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.045874, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.603896, "worst_return": -0.221393, "sufficient": true }, 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-45.308439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.111161, "energy": 14.991539, "activity_lines": [ 15.07, 15.011818, 15.072857, 15.583333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4, "volume": 16023, "typical_volume": 87210.9, "trend": 16.268333, "fair_value": 20.330128, "relative_strength": -45.641208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.004242, "energy": 23.731055, "activity_lines": [ 14.88, 14.918182, 14.966429, 15.450753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.45, "volume": 56122, "typical_volume": 74242.9, "trend": 16.08, "fair_value": 20.270833, "relative_strength": -45.585267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.276552, "energy": 27.632739, "activity_lines": [ 14.686667, 14.845455, 14.877143, 15.333441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.95, "volume": 17010, "typical_volume": 74168.75, "trend": 15.911667, "fair_value": 20.211218, "relative_strength": -48.075258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.931438, "energy": 39.359624, "activity_lines": [ 14.376667, 14.671818, 14.756905, 15.196022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }