{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a5d8de5-c8b3-4bcf-bf7c-fd6e7f6058bf", "symbol": "002632", "name": "Daoming Optics&Chemical Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.821, "architecture_energy": 55.829, "architecture_maturity": 55.912, "architecture_confidence": 89.045, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 18.94, "upward_expansion": 9.0, "deceleration": 59.45, "rotation_down": 64.42, "downward_expansion": 84.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.428, 8.807091, 9.542609, 10.204062 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.35, "trend_reference": 11.044769, "distance_from_trend": -0.243986, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.587238, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027627, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.322571, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.311094, "excess_performance": -0.318494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.243986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073885, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027627, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.409104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.311094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.761007, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74419166, "relative_activity": 1.074845, "balance": 0.761007, "dry_up": 1.695325, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128881, "annualized_volatility": 0.638738, "from_high_reference": -0.488313, "from_low_reference": 0.119303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.044769, "fair_value_reference": 8.587238, "structural_low": 7.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051613, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.016426, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.11882, "worst_return": -0.148713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.258373, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.022029, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.547554, "worst_return": -0.172107, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.549373, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.444752, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.817537, "worst_return": 0.28121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02976, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011001, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.371598, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070453, "active": false }, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.560408, "energy": 50.252038, "activity_lines": [ 9.582667, 9.713818, 10.313751, 10.854397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.61, "volume": 145494169, "typical_volume": 78592927.25, "trend": 11.327223, "fair_value": 8.566052, "relative_strength": -30.977204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.993395, "energy": 62.132229, "activity_lines": [ 8.952667, 9.288727, 9.998276, 10.604876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.94, "volume": 87334400, "typical_volume": 74146491.7, "trend": 11.175386, "fair_value": 8.574663, "relative_strength": -26.566798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.692022, "energy": 60.428004, "activity_lines": [ 8.576, 8.986545, 9.738665, 10.386345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.35, "volume": 74419166, "typical_volume": 69237118.25, "trend": 11.044769, "fair_value": 8.587238, "relative_strength": -26.322571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.821298, "energy": 55.828972, "activity_lines": [ 8.428, 8.807091, 9.542609, 10.204062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }