{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a5dcf7f-5111-4342-bc97-dc8c681a1869", "symbol": "002167", "name": "Guangdong Orient Zirconic Ind Sci & Tech Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.342, "architecture_energy": 25.793, "architecture_maturity": 70.85, "architecture_confidence": 91.731, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.31, "rotation_up": 21.79, "upward_expansion": 55.07, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 38.06, "downward_expansion": 21.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.279333, 17.554, 16.287333, 15.491871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.219999, "trend_reference": 14.678667, "distance_from_trend": 0.173131, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.576603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.798132, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.794018, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.265246, "excess_performance": 0.257846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.173131, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125607, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.798132, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.269421, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.18794, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.310939, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.265246, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.841945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 553642904, "relative_activity": 2.311033, "balance": 0.841945, "dry_up": 2.118035, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174618, "annualized_volatility": 0.814898, "from_high_reference": -0.358659, "from_low_reference": 0.493495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.678667, "fair_value_reference": 9.576603, "structural_low": 11.53, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.027536, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.011648, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.324763, "worst_return": -0.168129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014503, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.408551, "worst_return": -0.19152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003858, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.025595, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.513158, "worst_return": -0.166271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"energy": 88.094177, "activity_lines": [ 20.636667, 18.012182, 15.818381, 15.057484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.02, "volume": 391074252, "typical_volume": 207596399.25, "trend": 14.341333, "fair_value": 9.419936, "relative_strength": 22.576002, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.764294, "energy": 81.839467, "activity_lines": [ 19.871333, 18.158182, 16.034, 15.240495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.56, "volume": 680134366, "typical_volume": 213879940.6, "trend": 14.456, "fair_value": 9.469936, "relative_strength": 11.418912, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.93781, "energy": 48.415983, "activity_lines": [ 18.431333, 17.974545, 16.103714, 15.319118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.43, "volume": 404776987, "typical_volume": 219480111.6, "trend": 14.516333, "fair_value": 9.512821, "relative_strength": 5.061774, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.362286, "energy": 21.286087, "activity_lines": [ 16.652667, 17.525636, 16.063809, 15.317441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.219999, "volume": 553642904, "typical_volume": 239565088.15, "trend": 14.678667, "fair_value": 9.576603, "relative_strength": 18.794018, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.34206, "energy": 25.793335, "activity_lines": [ 16.279333, 17.554, 16.287333, 15.491871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }