{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a5ecb0b-55ea-4cbc-9c11-997f61baa20a", "symbol": "XAIX", "name": "Xtrackers Artificial Intelligence & Big Data UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.637, "architecture_energy": 29.831, "architecture_maturity": 72.859, "architecture_confidence": 92.058, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.53, "rotation_up": 24.99, "upward_expansion": 57.01, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 32.27, "downward_expansion": 20.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 169.119999, 171.877272, 169.964857, 162.322409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 175.320007, "trend_reference": 152.686333, "distance_from_trend": 0.148236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 127.28884, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37734, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.257242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.338321, "excess_performance": 0.287085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.148236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095481, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.37734, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027722, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.122572, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058324, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.338321, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.002098, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25554, "relative_activity": 0.806022, "balance": 1.002098, "dry_up": 1.593269, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052365, "annualized_volatility": 0.266365, "from_high_reference": -0.060551, "from_low_reference": 0.487528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 152.686333, "fair_value_reference": 127.28884, "structural_low": 122.800003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064705, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133085, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": 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"up", "direction": 39.02921, "energy": 29.539415, "activity_lines": [ 169.442663, 173.693817, 167.920476, 159.834796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 165.119995, "volume": 113527, "typical_volume": 31595.95, "trend": 151.449, "fair_value": 126.813284, "relative_strength": 6.432723, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.048092, "energy": 29.116125, "activity_lines": [ 167.081329, 171.805634, 168.53538, 160.782344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 175.320007, "volume": 25554, "typical_volume": 31703.85, "trend": 152.686333, "fair_value": 127.28884, "relative_strength": 12.257242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.637066, "energy": 29.83105, "activity_lines": [ 169.119999, 171.877272, 169.964857, 162.322409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }