{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a60526f-da02-4056-a097-a6deccaaa684", "symbol": "200055", "name": "China Fangda Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.741, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.499, "architecture_energy": 31.091, "architecture_maturity": 7.028, "architecture_confidence": 45.243, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.7, "rotation_up": 44.75, "upward_expansion": 41.16, "deceleration": 25.75, "rotation_down": 17.68, "downward_expansion": 49.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.318, 1.3, 1.278857, 1.289032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.34, "trend_reference": 1.323, "distance_from_trend": 0.01285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.556203, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13893, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.16898, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.088435, "excess_performance": -0.095835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052519, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13893, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099418, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246753, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088435, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.40034, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1113407, "relative_activity": 0.949576, "balance": 1.40034, "dry_up": 1.427847, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039036, "annualized_volatility": 0.201595, "from_high_reference": -0.225434, "from_low_reference": 0.145299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.323, "fair_value_reference": 1.556203, "structural_low": 1.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.016608, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.007652, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.022553, "worst_return": -0.090361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.035988, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008422, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": -0.006211, "worst_return": -0.131707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.103741, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.027374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017557, "worst_return": -0.121951, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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1.342333, "fair_value": 1.568997, "relative_strength": -22.62369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.765898, "energy": 15.511516, "activity_lines": [ 1.271333, 1.266545, 1.264619, 1.294538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.27, "volume": 1796596, "typical_volume": 1084187.5, "trend": 1.335333, "fair_value": 1.565732, "relative_strength": -13.496859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.557684, "energy": 21.209977, "activity_lines": [ 1.268667, 1.269091, 1.263524, 1.289871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.29, "volume": 1679661, "typical_volume": 1123155.5, "trend": 1.330667, "fair_value": 1.562595, "relative_strength": -11.742523, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.005821, "energy": 11.416363, "activity_lines": [ 1.274667, 1.274364, 1.264857, 1.286946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.35, "volume": 2107110, "typical_volume": 1174874.65, "trend": 1.327, "fair_value": 1.559549, "relative_strength": -5.524653, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.436009, "energy": 13.233935, "activity_lines": [ 1.301333, 1.289091, 1.272286, 1.288194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.34, "volume": 1113407, "typical_volume": 1172530.3, "trend": 1.323, "fair_value": 1.556203, "relative_strength": -10.16898, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.499073, "energy": 31.090645, "activity_lines": [ 1.318, 1.3, 1.278857, 1.289032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }