{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a699d75-073e-4e56-9a6e-0debf76e813f", "symbol": "OPEN", "name": "Opendoor Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.365, "architecture_energy": 69.064, "architecture_maturity": 66.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.821, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.11, "rotation_up": 13.21, "upward_expansion": 16.95, "deceleration": 34.59, "rotation_down": 70.63, "downward_expansion": 87.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.851667, 4.149818, 4.417429, 4.570505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.485, "trend_reference": 4.815, "distance_from_trend": -0.27622, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.257514, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069834, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.851117, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285861, "excess_performance": -0.473314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27622, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148247, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069834, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.513301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.468511, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346446, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285861, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.427138, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230744570, "relative_activity": 0.986651, "balance": 0.427138, "dry_up": 1.390403, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.205891, "annualized_volatility": 0.612991, "from_high_reference": -0.668706, "from_low_reference": 0.875607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.815, "fair_value_reference": 3.257514, "structural_low": 3.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.096457, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.079863, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 3.548712, "worst_return": -0.507246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.261062, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.246181, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.906978, "worst_return": -0.520309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.183908, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.315425, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 9.246804, "worst_return": -0.690522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 18.086933, "activity_lines": [ 4.661, 4.622909, 4.74481, 4.868204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.5, "volume": 526618771, "typical_volume": 227231961.2, "trend": 5.091, "fair_value": 3.259687, "relative_strength": -27.939419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.077086, "energy": 18.657467, "activity_lines": [ 4.631333, 4.598818, 4.712881, 4.826075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.835, "volume": 378125259, "typical_volume": 236107099.05, "trend": 5.0185, "fair_value": 3.254246, "relative_strength": -37.758551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.225099, "energy": 32.740253, "activity_lines": [ 4.376, 4.463091, 4.622, 4.745043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.77, "volume": 165185754, "typical_volume": 232162219.7, "trend": 4.941833, "fair_value": 3.256452, "relative_strength": -39.380531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.157281, "energy": 54.203026, "activity_lines": [ 4.141333, 4.325455, 4.530476, 4.664495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.485, "volume": 230744570, "typical_volume": 233866455.35, "trend": 4.815, "fair_value": 3.257514, "relative_strength": -46.851117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.365315, "energy": 69.064238, "activity_lines": [ 3.851667, 4.149818, 4.417429, 4.570505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }