{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a791f9f-8510-4de5-997a-6d06292432c2", "symbol": "ADP", "name": "Automatic Data Processing, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.18, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.843, "architecture_energy": 86.548, "architecture_maturity": 22.073, "architecture_confidence": 65.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.02, "rotation_up": 86.89, "upward_expansion": 96.37, "deceleration": 42.03, "rotation_down": 8.73, "downward_expansion": 18.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 227.040002, 218.279885, 203.680932, 196.533097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 235.350006, "trend_reference": 191.980267, "distance_from_trend": 0.225907, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 221.18234, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064054, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.602298, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.217978, "excess_performance": 0.153338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.225907, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009495, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.301606, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046023, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.280891, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.217978, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.791369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 381, "relative_activity": 0.863554, "balance": 0.791369, "dry_up": 1.397325, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047366, "annualized_volatility": 0.340231, "from_high_reference": -0.038407, "from_low_reference": 0.475926 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 191.980267, "fair_value_reference": 221.18234, "structural_low": 159.459191, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.00531, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.012019, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.194823, "worst_return": -0.118314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01103, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028873, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.088397, "worst_return": -0.138771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.029837, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.042613, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.248363, "worst_return": -0.211528, "sufficient": true }, { 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713, "typical_volume": 434.5, "trend": 191.086581, "fair_value": 220.960613, "relative_strength": 1.417189, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.909249, "energy": 90.792454, "activity_lines": [ 216.095335, 208.201163, 195.267705, 191.25462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 229.2, "volume": 1112, "typical_volume": 436.5, "trend": 191.647043, "fair_value": 221.066169, "relative_strength": 4.373793, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.183775, "energy": 91.69956, "activity_lines": [ 221.680001, 213.030994, 199.297704, 193.713551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 235.350006, "volume": 381, "typical_volume": 441.2, "trend": 191.980267, "fair_value": 221.18234, "relative_strength": 4.602298, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.843437, "energy": 86.548386, "activity_lines": [ 227.040002, 218.279885, 203.680932, 196.533097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }