{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a79a6da-8b2c-44aa-910e-3cd3aa23983a", "symbol": "PLC", "name": "PLC Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.539, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.315, "architecture_energy": 23.44, "architecture_maturity": 38.061, "architecture_confidence": 76.962, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.47, "rotation_up": 25.57, "upward_expansion": 14.89, "deceleration": 40.88, "rotation_down": 28.39, "downward_expansion": 60.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.008267, 0.008109, 0.008562, 0.009006 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.008, "trend_reference": 0.009333, "distance_from_trend": -0.142857, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.034898, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.770762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.322011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.174817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070746, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.770762, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068508, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148979, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828348, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7503871, "relative_activity": 1.014402, "balance": 0.828348, "dry_up": 1.004202, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139423, "annualized_volatility": 0.763945, "from_high_reference": -0.384615, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.009333, "fair_value_reference": 0.034898, "structural_low": 0.007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.105447, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.452381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.238404, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.268298, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.717949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.272727, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.34608, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"fair_value": 0.038443, "relative_strength": -6.725363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.575339, "energy": 36.077306, "activity_lines": [ 0.007933, 0.008, 0.0087, 0.009101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.009, "volume": 1786451, "typical_volume": 7716637.4, "trend": 0.009283, "fair_value": 0.036674, "relative_strength": 2.152759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.565206, "energy": 23.684458, "activity_lines": [ 0.008333, 0.008136, 0.008671, 0.009089 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.008, "volume": 7503871, "typical_volume": 7397331.25, "trend": 0.009333, "fair_value": 0.034898, "relative_strength": -12.322011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.315071, "energy": 23.440494, "activity_lines": [ 0.008267, 0.008109, 0.008562, 0.009006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }