{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a7aa7cd-db68-4c9a-a912-ecee9e550449", "symbol": "DISW", "name": "Amundi ETF ICAV - Amundi S&P World Consumer Discretionary Screened UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.501, "architecture_energy": 32.57, "architecture_maturity": 27.789, "architecture_confidence": 65.375, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.2, "rotation_up": 49.56, "upward_expansion": 73.99, "deceleration": 59.32, "rotation_down": 25.95, "downward_expansion": 9.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.374, 13.337564, 13.302781, 13.176297 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.774, "trend_reference": 13.089067, "distance_from_trend": 0.052329, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.257526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123718, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.6011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083543, "excess_performance": -0.087349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052329, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003886, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017284, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.573804, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12678, "relative_activity": 1.090951, "balance": 14.573804, "dry_up": 1.711657, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027733, "annualized_volatility": 0.198481, "from_high_reference": -0.018806, "from_low_reference": 0.154181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.089067, "fair_value_reference": 12.257526, "structural_low": 11.934, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.014815, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059504, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.010584, "worst_return": -0.099462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.052251, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.079051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.04163, "worst_return": -0.062873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.027101, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.147271, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.019704, "worst_return": -0.034498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 12.218444, "relative_strength": -11.88157, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.208718, "energy": 26.73008, "activity_lines": [ 13.351467, 13.343709, 13.201686, 13.119518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.574, "volume": 1539, "typical_volume": 10428.0, "trend": 13.117, "fair_value": 12.227247, "relative_strength": -9.779238, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.06165, "energy": 56.314384, "activity_lines": [ 13.4444, 13.383164, 13.253676, 13.148761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.67, "volume": 2853, "typical_volume": 9107.25, "trend": 13.087533, "fair_value": 12.230103, "relative_strength": -15.292039, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.167517, "energy": 9.241274, "activity_lines": [ 13.205467, 13.255782, 13.215933, 13.119923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.274, "volume": 62495, "typical_volume": 11737.15, "trend": 13.086667, "fair_value": 12.236795, "relative_strength": -11.576258, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.837039, "energy": 15.106279, "activity_lines": [ 13.210667, 13.248836, 13.23699, 13.131953 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.774, "volume": 12678, "typical_volume": 11621.05, "trend": 13.089067, "fair_value": 12.257526, "relative_strength": -10.6011, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.501138, "energy": 32.570353, "activity_lines": [ 13.374, 13.337564, 13.302781, 13.176297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }