{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a7b8f2b-7d0c-433a-9a82-d1eb02a27bb1", "symbol": "SZG", "name": "Salzgitter AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.521, "architecture_energy": 20.755, "architecture_maturity": 26.771, "architecture_confidence": 62.57, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.41, "rotation_up": 40.24, "upward_expansion": 59.68, "deceleration": 63.92, "rotation_down": 18.3, "downward_expansion": 12.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.226666, 52.767272, 53.184879, 51.628236 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 52.75, "trend_reference": 50.216784, "distance_from_trend": 0.050446, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.057987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.880035, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.938064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04249, "excess_performance": -0.131757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050446, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124295, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.880035, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049381, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04249, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.625112, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 581, "relative_activity": 0.974832, "balance": 1.625112, "dry_up": 1.144295, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109063, "annualized_volatility": 0.659738, "from_high_reference": -0.201363, "from_low_reference": 1.555717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.216784, "fair_value_reference": 28.057987, "structural_low": 32.759998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.014201, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.0012, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.39974, "worst_return": -0.33494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.148216, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.07414, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.772173, "worst_return": -0.219919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.354616, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.205743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.854578, "worst_return": -0.28904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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53.487252, 51.698327, 50.496675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.700001, "volume": 1975, "typical_volume": 568.9, "trend": 49.237784, "fair_value": 27.586188, "relative_strength": 18.549501, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.775231, "energy": 26.183428, "activity_lines": [ 51.88, 53.693243, 52.282882, 50.946711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.049999, "volume": 172, "typical_volume": 567.95, "trend": 49.752784, "fair_value": 27.745328, "relative_strength": 14.58114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.040369, "energy": 20.64567, "activity_lines": [ 53.256666, 53.693706, 52.80077, 51.321692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 566.95, "trend": 49.995784, "fair_value": 27.891537, "relative_strength": 6.871968, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.656503, "energy": 22.405977, "activity_lines": [ 53.313333, 53.089337, 52.971181, 51.450545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.75, "volume": 581, "typical_volume": 596.0, "trend": 50.216784, "fair_value": 28.057987, "relative_strength": 4.938064, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.52116, "energy": 20.755473, "activity_lines": [ 53.226666, 52.767272, 53.184879, 51.628236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }