{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a7ba3c4-8ac2-4fdc-b54e-33fb0d6b65b2", "symbol": "AXIA3", "name": "AXIA Energia SA", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.845, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.76, "architecture_energy": 47.459, "architecture_maturity": 23.552, "architecture_confidence": 89.072, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.14, "rotation_up": 19.95, "upward_expansion": 8.1, "deceleration": 45.14, "rotation_down": 49.64, "downward_expansion": 76.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.115999, 52.473818, 53.815714, 55.110602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 53.049999, "trend_reference": 56.125667, "distance_from_trend": -0.0548, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.420544, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280765, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.167337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079473, "excess_performance": -0.022424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0548, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033105, "read": "Falling" 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49.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.020837, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.000791, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.129014, "worst_return": -0.137895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.182529, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.061285, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.220266, "worst_return": -0.201951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.088869, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2201, "worst_return": -0.029819, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 38903020.0, "trend": 56.382333, "fair_value": 40.945469, "relative_strength": -6.904777, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.005256, "energy": 28.87663, "activity_lines": [ 53.900667, 53.441272, 55.631476, 56.275677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.200001, "volume": 54408100, "typical_volume": 39054760.0, "trend": 55.962333, "fair_value": 41.047645, "relative_strength": -11.525015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.253463, "energy": 37.495432, "activity_lines": [ 52.805334, 52.786, 54.979381, 55.876817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.259998, "volume": 44356900, "typical_volume": 38305870.0, "trend": 55.975, "fair_value": 41.155284, "relative_strength": -11.704557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.99752, "energy": 56.544127, "activity_lines": [ 51.849999, 52.297091, 54.385714, 55.508925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.82, "volume": 58452600, "typical_volume": 39059780.0, "trend": 56.069, "fair_value": 41.288418, "relative_strength": -9.431778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.105986, "energy": 53.33593, "activity_lines": [ 51.851333, 52.353818, 54.077428, 55.305376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.049999, "volume": 62359200, "typical_volume": 39519710.0, "trend": 56.125667, "fair_value": 41.420544, "relative_strength": -6.167337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.759743, "energy": 47.458748, "activity_lines": [ 52.115999, 52.473818, 53.815714, 55.110602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }