{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a86e568-0675-45ca-89d9-581c0275fe95", "symbol": "AGXY3", "name": "AgroGalaxy Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.162, "architecture_energy": 71.948, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.59, "rotation_up": 28.24, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.81, "rotation_down": 60.58, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.709333, 1.746364, 1.81781, 1.922645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.62, "trend_reference": 2.172333, "distance_from_trend": -0.254258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.676858, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.908355, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -57.892152, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.413043, "excess_performance": -0.355995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.908355, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009499, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.578922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068722, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.413043, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.253577, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245200, "relative_activity": 2.436649, "balance": 0.253577, "dry_up": 1.384031, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058405, "annualized_volatility": 0.260029, "from_high_reference": -0.736585, "from_low_reference": 0.038462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.172333, "fair_value_reference": 17.676858, "structural_low": 1.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.077626, "positive_rate": 0.243243, "directional_follow_through": 0.72973, "median_excess_return": -0.098968, "regime_survival": 0.945946, "best_return": 0.466667, "worst_return": -0.391089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.199179, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": -0.224525, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.725, "worst_return": -0.710145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.49359, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.599257, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.764706, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.892096, "energy": 67.34622, "activity_lines": [ 1.820667, 1.849455, 1.935619, 2.154237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.74, "volume": 112700, "typical_volume": 92940.0, "trend": 2.527, "fair_value": 19.600063, "relative_strength": -60.943538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.417958, "energy": 71.294235, "activity_lines": [ 1.793333, 1.822545, 1.908143, 2.096452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.74, "volume": 86500, "typical_volume": 89435.0, "trend": 2.437667, "fair_value": 19.087179, "relative_strength": -58.89952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.791356, "energy": 69.582919, "activity_lines": [ 1.772, 1.800364, 1.88419, 2.045677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.76, "volume": 163700, "typical_volume": 93695.0, "trend": 2.348667, "fair_value": 18.578269, "relative_strength": -57.309662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.180948, "energy": 66.736741, "activity_lines": [ 1.762667, 1.787091, 1.864524, 2.001957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.76, "volume": 61700, "typical_volume": 93335.0, "trend": 2.260667, "fair_value": 18.121281, "relative_strength": -56.987695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.966289, "energy": 65.944656, "activity_lines": [ 1.758, 1.778364, 1.84681, 1.963978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.62, "volume": 245200, "typical_volume": 100630.0, "trend": 2.172333, "fair_value": 17.676858, "relative_strength": -57.892152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.162022, "energy": 71.948425, "activity_lines": [ 1.709333, 1.746364, 1.81781, 1.922645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }