{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a89353c-dcd5-48a2-8eea-cae146f19170", "symbol": "XVALO", "name": "Vale S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.055, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.958, "architecture_energy": 35.218, "architecture_maturity": 7.689, "architecture_confidence": 81.953, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.73, "rotation_up": 17.47, "upward_expansion": 3.93, "deceleration": 49.75, "rotation_down": 53.93, "downward_expansion": 77.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.574533, 12.653673, 12.981133, 13.109462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.786, "trend_reference": 13.2712, "distance_from_trend": -0.03656, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.101404, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.095583, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.837398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072537, "excess_performance": -0.196968, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03656, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095017, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.095583, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.494659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018374, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.395089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072537, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.696645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8210, "relative_activity": 0.260254, "balance": 0.696645, "dry_up": 0.379842, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057996, "annualized_volatility": 0.28956, "from_high_reference": -0.148054, "from_low_reference": 1.710773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.2712, "fair_value_reference": 6.101404, "structural_low": 11.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.026511, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026088, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.159638, "worst_return": -0.050074, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.173362, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.167601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173362, "worst_return": 0.173362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.414397, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.351142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.414397, "worst_return": 0.414397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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13.014267, 13.190073, 13.343733, 13.332477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.246, "volume": 256, "typical_volume": 44887.5, "trend": 13.136667, "fair_value": 5.837065, "relative_strength": 5.558637, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.62021, "energy": 52.85767, "activity_lines": [ 12.747067, 12.9984, 13.236286, 13.278069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.198, "volume": 19629, "typical_volume": 38747.75, "trend": 13.176533, "fair_value": 5.900884, "relative_strength": 5.046232, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.973888, "energy": 58.464509, "activity_lines": [ 12.517467, 12.819418, 13.131429, 13.21751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.73, "volume": 18419, "typical_volume": 35723.2, "trend": 13.2228, "fair_value": 5.967693, "relative_strength": 6.479882, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.343495, "energy": 59.344528, "activity_lines": [ 12.529333, 12.760655, 13.0876, 13.188701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.464, "volume": 1672, "typical_volume": 31704.8, "trend": 13.2554, "fair_value": 6.033327, "relative_strength": 2.24126, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.70629, "energy": 59.870944, "activity_lines": [ 12.482533, 12.666364, 13.018219, 13.139746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.786, "volume": 8210, "typical_volume": 31546.05, "trend": 13.2712, "fair_value": 6.101404, "relative_strength": 1.837398, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.957548, "energy": 35.218279, "activity_lines": [ 12.574533, 12.653673, 12.981133, 13.109462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }