{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8a9a71a6-57d0-4ab6-9760-dd76dea40975", "symbol": "ISJP", "name": "iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.141, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.386, "architecture_energy": 34.219, "architecture_maturity": 61.449, "architecture_confidence": 79.839, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.1, "rotation_up": 37.83, "upward_expansion": 61.8, "deceleration": 85.45, "rotation_down": 27.36, "downward_expansion": 20.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.249181, 52.359863, 51.713152, 50.92224 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.52, "trend_reference": 49.896198, "distance_from_trend": 0.072627, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.621594, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317526, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.908977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120838, "excess_performance": -0.050054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072627, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054658, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.317526, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026606, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027711, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.111967, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11852, "relative_activity": 0.554465, "balance": 1.111967, "dry_up": 0.861756, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025267, "annualized_volatility": 0.1841, "from_high_reference": -0.007786, "from_low_reference": 0.265847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.896198, "fair_value_reference": 40.621594, "structural_low": 45.384998, "invalidation": "A 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"fair_value": 40.16161, "relative_strength": -1.812964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.630104, "energy": 84.939024, "activity_lines": [ 53.026768, 52.380842, 51.056028, 50.246764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.02, "volume": 9449, "typical_volume": 29076.55, "trend": 49.202698, "fair_value": 40.272573, "relative_strength": -4.328054, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.680728, "energy": 53.613178, "activity_lines": [ 52.460705, 52.224461, 51.144523, 50.3783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.93, "volume": 36085, "typical_volume": 23833.5, "trend": 49.449365, "fair_value": 40.383019, "relative_strength": -2.474684, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.923824, "energy": 43.012055, "activity_lines": [ 52.211308, 52.223716, 51.320495, 50.554255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.299999, "volume": 16296, "typical_volume": 22280.0, "trend": 49.666865, "fair_value": 40.496331, "relative_strength": -4.24356, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.072929, "energy": 26.6144, "activity_lines": [ 51.804578, 52.092789, 51.420228, 50.67365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.52, "volume": 11852, "typical_volume": 21375.55, "trend": 49.896198, "fair_value": 40.621594, "relative_strength": -2.908977, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.386084, "energy": 34.219256, "activity_lines": [ 52.249181, 52.359863, 51.713152, 50.92224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }